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New Space De-Orbiting: Share Prices Have Come Back to Earth as Market Volatility Increases

2021.12.24 07:06 MillennialBetsNew Space De-Orbiting: Share Prices Have Come Back to Earth as Market Volatility Increases

Date: 2021-12-23 13:59:43, Author:u/johnnybgood111131, (Karma: 535, Created:Apr-2012)
SubReddit:spacs, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
ARKK 99.07(0.82%)SPCE 14.53(-0.48%)RDW 7.34(-0.68%)TSAT 31.88(0.41%)ASTS 8.71(2.96%)MAXR 31.16(2.06%)SPY 470.6(0.62%)
https://preview.redd.it/81b7qrqaac781.jpg?width=1100&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5628fa037e2a9969ccd1bf8e210970ed75b076f0
If you had been in an investing competition with my mom over the last 2 months, my mom probably would have won.
No, she isn’t an investment guru, she’s more of a Bogle-head who preaches ETF investing, but you—the reader—I assume you invest in (or are at least interested in) New Space stocks, which have struggled over the last two months.
New Space stocks have greatly underperformed the market since the end of October—$SPY is +1.8% through 12/22, while the market cap-weighted return for New Space is -20.6% (see the footnote below for constituents). This is slightly worse than the performance of Cathy Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (a proxy for non-New Space growth stocks), which has declined -19.0% over the same time period.
​
https://preview.redd.it/1lyc5uqdac781.png?width=859&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d1a4c3b723c46de3613eec9dcb6a32ea14c71e
Here is what I see going on:
The Federal Reserve’s recent shift in policy triggered a sell-off in growth stocks in November and December, including New Space companies. Further investigation reveals investor bias towards launchers vs earth observation (EO), manufacturing, or satcom. This pullback is probably healthy given valuation concerns surrounding New Space companies, particularly those having gone public via SPAC (i.e. all but $TSAT, $SIDU, $MAXR). Going forward, the key to New Space stocks working is execution of forecasted business/operational plans + meeting financial guidance on time. The stock market rewards consistent, incremental progress which is not necessarily how many of these New Space companies grew up before going public.
https://preview.redd.it/d9q0cbcgac781.jpg?width=1100&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a20dac982036d4ec78e3ba83f0164ba7adc3fe2c
Traders and investors indicate that recent growth stock underperformance + increased market volatility has in-part been driven by repositioning into 2022 as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s pivot in NovembeDecember from dovish (focus on economic growth) to hawkish (focus on controlling inflation).
This change in policy matters because dovish policy (low interest rates, bond purchases to infuse capital into the economy) is generally good for stocks, while hawkish policy (no bond purchases, higher interest rates) generally creates a more challenging environment for stocks.
Key Changes in Federal Reserve Policy:

• Change of Stance on Inflation: Earlier this year the majority of Federal Reserve officials had the opinion that higher prices were driven by supply-chain bottlenecks and would resolve themselves in time. However in November Chairman Powell said“it’s probably a good time to retire” the word “transitory” when describing inflation, and in December he stated that “inflation may be more persistent and…the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased.”Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor who is now president of research-advisory firm Monetary Policy Analytics said the change in tone towards inflation is because “…they want to make sure…that they haven’t let the situation get out of hand, where once the supply-based inflation has come down, demand-based inflation tells them they should have gone sooner or faster.”
• Faster Bond Purchase Tapering: As a result of this new perspective on inflation, in December Fed officials agreed to reduce their bond purchases at a rate that would end the current program in March vs prior expectations of ending the program in June. Bond purchases are the Fed’s method of infusing capital into the economy—they buy bonds from banks in exchange for cash, which increases the money supply. So ending this program cuts off an inflow of cash in the economy, which many argue is not needed at this point in the recovery from COVID.
• Interest Rate Hikes: Additionally, Fed officials projected that they would raise rates 3x next year—this is a more aggressive outlook versus September when their projections were for 1-2 rate hikes in 2022. These three interest rate hikes would only increase the Federal Funds Rate by 0.75% (which compares to near-term peaks of 2.4% in 2019 pre-pandemic, 5% in 2007 pre ‘07-’09 financial crisis, and 6.5% in 2000 pre-dotcom bubble), and interest rate increases beginning in mid-2022 only brings forward the expected timeline by ~3 months.

However, I believe it was the change of outlook (versus the magnitude of change) that triggered investors to more closely evaluate growth companies whose valuations and projections may have gotten a pass in the equity-friendly low interest rate environment of late 2020 and 2021 which is when most New Space stocks went public.
​
https://i.redd.it/s5bydopiac781.gif
Rising interest rates matter for growth stocks (aka New Space companies) because investors measure the present day value of a company’s future profits by using some form of the above formula for Net Present Value (NPV), the basic premise being that $100 today is worth more than $100 in the future (if you don’t already understand the time value of money, check it out straight from the mouth of a valuation OG, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran).
When calculating the NPV of a company’s future cash flows, changes in interest rates impact the variable “r,” or the discount rate, in the above equation. So if The Fed is raising interest rates, this means the denominator in the NPV calculation becomes greater (all else equal),which means a smaller present day value of the company’s future cash flows.
Given that most New Space companies are not profitable in the near-term, rising interest rates are more meaningfully negative for New Space than it is for businesses that are already cash/profit-generative because most of new space’s value is in their future cash flows.
Additionally, New Space in particular is at risk in a higher interest rate environment given the capital intensive nature of their businesses:

• If New Space companies can’t self-fund (which is harder to do if input costs are going up due to inflation), then they must raise debt that no longer has bottom-of-the-barrel interest rates, OR they must dilute equity shareholders via equity.
  
  • For reference, Maxar raised $150M of debt with a 7.54% interest rate (~$11M interest/yr) in mid-2020—it’s safe to assume other New Space companies would have higher interest rates.
  • Virgin Galactic $SPCE raised $500M via an equity raise in mid-2021 and its share price dropped >10% following the announcement.
• Lastly, the longer that de-SPAC’d companies hold onto their piles of cash after merger completion, the less valuable the money becomes due to inflation.
  

​
https://preview.redd.it/2gyey3vjac781.png?width=576&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ec5a5fece4d84d9e1c272432cf566b02607a1af
Since the end of October, launchers have declined only (lol) -15.6%, outperforming EO, satcom, and manufacturing.

• However, I will note that Maxar is +15.0% over this same time period, and EO performance ex-Maxar is nearly -39% vs -22% including Maxar
• I assume Maxar’s performance is due to the company’s superior profitability relative to the rest of the companies in the above list ($MAXR’s FY20 Adj. EBITDA margin was 47.5%, though the company burned $65M of FCF in 2020 as well).
  
  • Telesat is also profitable (TTM as of 1Q21, 80% EBITDA margin), but the company’s revenue and operating income have been declining y/y every year since 2016, so $TSAT shares have not experienced the same trend of outperformance.

Additionally, I looked at the timeline for when SPAC management teams projected their companies to breakeven—it doesn’t seem like launchers have an advantage here, as profitability timelines would actually seem to favor $SPIR and $RDW.
​
https://preview.redd.it/wn67kxplac781.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e82451d920050d3056ca9749dea546a8eadf79f
As simplistic as this may seem, I believe the bias towards launchers is due to investors’ lack of familiarity with the New Space industry. To a generalist investor or someone very new to covering the industry, it is easier to measure progress of launchers (rocket goes into sky = big headlines), relative to EO (lumpy contract acquisition), satcom (next-gen LEO constellations are still pre-launch), and manufacturing (progress overshadowed by Redwire’s accounting issues). While $ASTR and $RKLB have successfully launched fire-spewing and headline-grabbing rockets since going public, EO, satcom, and manufacturing companies have all stumbled out of the starting blocks in their early days of trading on the stock market, including multiple downward revenue guidance revisions from EO companies, and lingering investor uncertainty regarding $ASTS and $RDW's respective issues (launch delays and Audit Committee investigation).
For New Space stock share prices to appreciate going forward we need to see the following, as I highlighted in my note on 3Q21 New Space Earnings Key Themes:

Space is an industry that is literally pushing the forefront of what is possible for mankind, but the stock market is an area that requires a tempering of expectations—to see share price appreciation, it is often better to set expectations low and exceed them than it is to promise the world (the moon?) and end up short, even if progress made is material. I’m not saying this balance should be easy (because let me tell you, it is not), but this concept is something public New Space management teams will have to consider as they grapple with how to communicate their results and outlook—even if they view themselves to be long-term oriented and not concerned with day-to-day movement of their stock.

Disclosure/Disclaimer: This post is not investment advice and represents my opinions only. Do your own research before making investment decisions. While I aim to write with an unbiased opinion, I have long stock positions in $ASTS, $RDW, $PL, and $RKLB, which are all mentioned in this post.
If you enjoyed this post,here is my twitter accountandhere is my substack page. I exclusively write about space companies.
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.22 18:51 MillennialBetsNubank (NU): Move over SoFi, there’s a NU kid on the block

Date: 2021-12-21 15:59:07, Author:u/RonMexico13, (Karma: 17199, Created:Dec-2016)
SubReddit:vitards, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
PRO 36.075(-0.15%)COIN 250.56(1.16%)HOOD 18.33(-3.17%)BR 178.545(1.98%)ITA 101.2(0.48%)VALE 13.9(-0.86%)ZG 60.75(-0.05%)SOFI 15.22 NU 9.08
Hi there fellow Vitards and Vitardettes, I’d like to talk about an intriguing fintech company called Nubank. This is my first foray into DD on this sub and I do not have a background in finance, so any constructive criticism is GREATLY appreciated. Lets get to it.
NU hits the NYSE
Nubank was founded in 2013 by former Sequoia Capital partner David Velez. I highly recommend the Forbes story linked below; the guy has had an interesting life. The Columbian born Velez saw an opportunity to be a disruptor within Brazil’s banking industry, which is notorious for high interest rate loans and big fees for use of their services. He poached the top executive from the credit card division at Itaú (Brazil’s largest bank), added a Princeton computer science graduate to develop the products, secured some funding from Silicon Valley, and set up shop in Sao Paulo, the financial capital of Brazil.
Nubank’s released its first product in 2014 in the midst of a recession, a credit card with no annual fees. The lack of fees was a rarity in Brazil. By 2016, they had grown to 1 million credit card customers. Checking and savings accounts were added in 2017, again undercutting the competition with low fees. Currently, their accounts have no annual fees and a small fee for ATM withdrawals and transfers that comes out to about $1.14 USD. In 2020, they added insurance policies and compatibility with a point-of-sale feature developed by the Central Bank of Brazil called Pix to their suite of services. They now also offer personal loans, home loans and investing tools on their app. In fact, I first learned about the company when my Brazilian girlfriend showed me that she was holding shares on there (at least she’s out of crypto, thank Christ). Their largest revenue stream is from interchange fees from merchants when their credit cards are swiped, followed by interest payments on credit cards and personal loans.
Today, Nubank is the largest Fintech company in Latin America with a total of 48.1 million customers and a market cap at time of writing of 41.52 billion USD. This puts it in the same league as companies like Coinbase and well above Robinhood and SoFi. Nubank’s operations have also expanded to Columbia, Argentina and Mexico. They have an impressive moat in the region and look poised to dominate the region for years to come.
Obligatory picture of attractive Carnaval performers to keep you interested
Nubank’s customer base is growing throughout the region, but the majority of their customers and their HQ are still Brazilian, so I thought it would be prudent to take a little detour and talk some macro. Brazil has always been Latin America’s sleeping giant, so the question is when will they wake up?
The pandemic took its toll on the economy, as they faced a –4.05% reduction of the GDP during 2020 (compared to –3.64% in the United States). A cursory glance at the country’s Covid aid seems to suggest that stimulus money was focused more towards aid for individuals and tax credits rather than buying assets and keeping interest rates low when compared to the US’s policy. GDP forecasts for this year currently stand at 5.1% for this year and 2.1% for next year. Inflation was a growing problem even before the pandemic and CPI currently stands at a nasty 9.7% (caralho, puta que pariu). To combat this, the Central Bank of Brazil decided earlier this month to raise interest rates from 7.25% to 9.25%. For a gringo, these numbers are a little tough to stomach. Nubank was able to grow their customer base exponentially even during times when interest rates were well above 10%, but it goes without saying that this could be a headwind to their growth.
Now onto the unfolding political situation. I won’t go into too much detail about how much of a wet turd President Jair Bolsonaro is, but suffice to say that several scandals concerning his handling of the pandemic have created an atmosphere of political and financial uncertainty in the country. His biggest opponent in the upcoming October 2022 election is leftist Luis Inacio Lula da Silva who is currently leading polls 48% to 21%. Former president Lula’s plan if reelected includes tax hikes on the rich and a removal of the “fiscal ceiling” that limits government spending. So far, Brazilian markets have reacted to his probable election mostly with indifference. If Brazilian money printer go brrrrr, I believe this could be a tailwind for NU as it will put money in the pockets of Nubank’s working and middle-class customers.
In general, I am slightly bullish going forward on the Brazilian economy into the next year. If anyone has insights into other areas of Latin America where Nubank has a foothold, I would appreciate your input.
(Side note for VALE holders: Lula has been strangely quiet about his environmental policy but I would keep close tabs on that as we approach the election).
​
CEO David Velez taking a bite out of the fintech market
Alright you value investing nerds, let's get this out of the way: Nubank is not yet a profitable company. This is a disruptive tech growth company. I know, I just said the bad scary words. However, I believe their climb into the black is not that far away.
Total revenue over TTM is $1.11 billion, representing a 71.34% increase, compared to a $1.22 billion total expenses. This represents earnings of -.79 per share. Debt currently stands at $517 million and free cash flow is 3.6B over TTM.
So what's the upside here? Massive user growth. As of September 30th of this year, they have 48.1 million users across Brazil, Columbia, Argentina and Mexico. That represents YoY growth of 62%. Monthly active users stands at 35.3 million, an 89% YoY growth. Deposits nearly doubled YoY, from $4.1 billion to $8.1 billion. One fifth of all registered users of the aforementioned Pix were on Nubank, solidifying their place within Brazil’s modernizing economy. They’re also seeing huge growth from small businesses, from 370,000 to 1.1 million YoY.
Internal data shows that 59% of their user base is younger than 35. These users are about to enter their prime earning years and Nubank’s suite of products positions them as a one stop financial shop with the ability to retain these customers for life. In addition, their customer acquisition costs remain very low, with 80-90% of customers coming in through word of mouth. There’s no doubt that they received a Covid bump like many tech companies did, but I believe their suite of products has the ability to retain these customers and the potential for more growth in a predominately young population in Latin America is present.
I’m sure some of you reading this are getting triggered by your SOFI earnings play PTSD. The similarities between the business models of SoFi and Nubank are obvious. I’m bullish on both, but here is why I prefer NU:

1. Nubank has a superior moat. SoFi has competition from other U.S. fintech as well as big banks that are looking to adapt. In contrast, other Latin American fintech competitors are late to the game and the big Brazilian banks have been extremely slow to change their ways. Nubank is also not looking to compete in the U.S. market, setting up a kind of fintech territorial truce between the two.
2. Despite generating less than half the revenue, SoFi is running a bigger loss (-$152 million vs. -$110 million).
3. NU does not have the attention of retail traders on social media as a “squeeze” play, which has proved to attract shorts like flies to shit lately.

Daddy Buffet, comin' for dat Brazilian ass
Prior to having their IPO on December 9th, NU received backing from some big institutional names such as Sequoia Capital, Tencent, Ribbit and a $500 million investment from ol’ daddy Buffet at Berkshire Hathaway. NU’s 289 million shares hit the NYSE at $9, spiked up to nearly $12, and have since coasted back down to IPO price. This pattern has been pretty consistent with other IPOs over the past few months.
Positions: None so far. I’m going to be patient with this one and let post-IPO volatility die down. So far, the lowest NU has touched is $8.75 where it quickly bounced back to $9. I will wait to see how it reacts during another few red days in the market. Currently, the furthest dated options available are July 2022’s. The ITM 7.5c’s from July look attractive, as of time of writing they have a nice .72 Delta. I’m leaning towards shares.
-Pros: exploding user base in a young rapidly developing region, solid moat, international venture capital backing
-Cons: Income is currently in the red, high interest rate environment and uncertain political future in Brazil
Thanks for reading, and remember:
You can look all over But no, you’ll never find Hot shit like mine Cause I provide Dat NU NU
References:
Nubank’s official website: https://nubank.com.ben/
“How David Velez Built the World's Most Valuable Digital Bank and Became a Billionaire”, Forbes, April 7 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2021/04/07/fintech-billionaire-david-velez-nubank-brazil-digital-bank/?sh=3e9dc2ce6b27
World Bank Data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicatoNY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=BR-US
“Government Cuts GDP Growth Forecasts”, The Brazilian Report, 2021 https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2021/11/17/government-cuts-gdp-growth-forecasts/
“Brazil Interest Rate”, Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/interest-rate
“Lula is Back, But Which Lula?”, Americas Quarterly, July 7 2021 https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/lula-is-back-but-which-lula/
“Leftist Lula maintains dominant lead in Brazilian election, poll shows”, Reuters, December 14, 2021 https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/leftist-lula-maintains-dominant-lead-brazilian-election-poll-shows-2021-12-14/
“Nubanks younger leaning customer base should worry incumbents”, Business Insider, November 3 2021 https://www.businessinsider.com/nubank-customers-skew-younger-than-established-banks-2021-11
“Fintech all star Nubank raises a $750M mega round” Techcrunch, June 8, 2021 https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/08/fintech-all-star-nubank-raises-a-750m-mega-round/
“Buffet backed Nubank closes up nearly 15% in trading after blockbuster fintech IPO” CNBC, December 9, 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/buffett-backed-nubank-rises-in-trading-on-the-nyse-in-blockbuster-ipo.html
Finances pulled from Tradingview.com
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.21 20:05 box-fort2I found a two year old Forza Horizon 5 wishlist buried deep in my Reddit Drafts. Judge if you will.

About a little over two years ago I starting writing this ridiculously long FH5 wishlist showcasing everything I wanted to see. Now that the game's been out for a good long while, I managed to dig this up and might as well release it to you guys now that we mostly know what what's happening in the new title. Anything below this point is the post.
Well, here it is. It's done. My entire list of things I want in Forza Horizon 5. This ranges from gameplay mechanics and quality-of-life changes, to future barn finds and music. I've been working really hard on this since November, so if you have a grievance with a certain feature please be sure to explain why.
LOCATION---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Horizon 5 absolutely needs to be set in Japan. It's required, nobody should abject this.
2. The mysterious, iconic, hidden 'Unrecoverable Supra' can be found as a Beauty Spot.
3. Now that Toyota's back, can we have the 2020 Supra as the cover car?

THE HORIZON FESTIVAL---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Go back to the game's roots festival-wise. Have lots of emphasis on music and live performances. This being stated, disable the feature seen in 3&4 where you can change music on the fly at the Festival Site.
2. Legitimate Festival T-Shirts. The first shirt you unlock in Horizon 4 is a festival shirt, but it's incredibly generic. The starter shirt in Horizon 5 should say 'HORIZON FESTIVAL 2021' on the front and on the back have a lineup of all the bands and artists whose music is going to appear in the game. You know, like actual music festival shirts??
3. Actually have the bands performing on stage. Music is emitted from the stage, but no one is there, or if there is, it's a generic NPC. Have the actual band members performing the songs onstage. I know the expensive long process of getting a real person in a game, but they're going to be seen from a distance, they don't have to be super detailed, just resemble them from a distance.
4. Make the music sound legitimate. When you're at the festival in Horizon 4, the music coming from speakers is just the studio recording. I suggest two versions of each song saved in the game. The normal studio version when you're away doing races or cruising around, but have a recorded version of when the performer(s) played a song live when you roll up to the festival. This will make it SO much more immersive.

MUSIC------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Hyperdrift Radio- Due to the game's setting being Japan, we need to get into the mood, style and aesthetics of Japan of course. Hyperdrift Radio is a brand new station that features Eurobeat and Vaporwave music, perfect for drifting and flying past opponents.
2. Please bring back the custom music option from Forza Horizon 3. I know Groove Music has been retired, but I think a Horizon X Spotify collaboration would be really nice. When it comes to 100% completion players like me, the current music gets REALLY old when driving. Hey, a Spotify shirt would be a free unlock if you connected your account?

3.What if each season had it's own music lineup? I know it'd be expensive to buy all that music for use, but it'd be worth it in my opinion.

1. Horizon XS features these songs (among others) (starred* songs are HIGHLY recommended)

Black Pistol Fire - Level*
Cage The Elephant - Broken Boy*
Death From Above 1979 - NVR4EVR*
Dinosaur Pile-Up - 11:11 (Radio Edit)*
Riverboat Gamblers - A Choppy, Yet Sincere Apology
Greenleaf - High Fever*
Kasabian - Fast Fuse
Liily - Toro*
Plauge Vendor - I Only Speak In Friction*
Rise Against - The Violence
Royal Blood - Where Are You Now?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Horizon Pulse features these songs (among others)

Shamir - On The Regular
Two Door Cinema Club - Undercover Martyn
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Horizon Block Party features these songs (amon- you get the idea.)

Gang Starr - Now You're Mine
LL Cool J - Rock The Bells
Pete Rock & CL Smooth - They Reminisce Over You*
Kabuto The Python - Spetsnaz*
Busdriver - Imaginary Places
The Pharcyde - Passin' Me By*
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Horizon Bass Arena

Andromedik - Forever* (this should play during the opening race to the festival)
Bloc Party - Flux (12' Instrumental Remix)
Siouxsie & The Banshees - Cities In Dust* (Junkie XL Remix)
Kavinsky - Testarossa (SebAstian Remix)
KNOWER - Time Traveler
Matrix & Futurebound - All I Know*
------------------------------------------------------------------------------8. Hyperdrift Radio (like Timeless, they're not affiliated with the Festival.)
Ace - Tokyo Lights*
18 Carat Affair - Desire*
ESPIRITにちは - espirit.wav
ESPIRITにちは - iwillbe.wav (Extended Mix)*
Crystal Castles - Crimewave*
Dark Angel - Right Now
Dave Rogers - Deja Vu
Dreams West - Tribes*
Fastway - Rockin' Hardcore*
FrankJavCee - SimpsonWave1995
GLOOMCVLT - Banned From Living*
Go2 - Looka Bomba
Hotblade - Manifold Love (Eurobeat Mix)
Jean Love - Steel Blade
Leslie Parrish - Killing My Love*
luxury elite - Temptation
luxury elite - Mall Madness
Manuel - GAS GAS GAS* (Extended Mix)
Max Coveri - Running In The 90's*
MF DOOM - Zatar*
Nando - In My Supercar*
The Snake - Freedom Ride (Eurobeat Mix)
(seriously, if any of the above songs get put into the game i'll lose it)
AUCTION HOUSE----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Currently in the game, if someone makes a bid in the final few mins, the auction timer is raised by a minute. This can go on indefinitely provided all the bidders have infinite money. This is fine, but I think it should have a limited amount of additional time given before the timer won't renew.
2. Private auctions. You can tag 1-4 users and have a private auction between only them. However, there is no max buyout, you actually have to make an auction bid, and the start bid is locked at the highest average price. Getting your rides sniped will be a thing of the past. Perfect compromise since the gifting car feature was removed.
3. You can save and monitor auctions for later. If you see a nice car with a low bid but a high buyout with several hours to go, you can come back and bid on it in the last few mins so you don't attract attention and get 70 people bidding on the car.
4. The Auction House is updated automatically and new auctions submitted are live. You don't need to back out and search again to get new auctions showing up.
5. In car histories, the date they were purchased/won is there.
6. You can track your sold cars and see if they're available again.
7. Your AH purchases and sells (that's not a word, is it?) are permanently logged, along with the date, the price, and who bought it. It's all kept in a comprehensive list.

SKILL SCORES-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Ultimate Airs are buffed to 1,000 points
2. BETTER SKILL REGISTRY. I cannot count how many points worth of skill chains i've lost because the game didn't count a wreckage or drift skill at the last second.
3. The skill score multiplier has an actual timer next to it. The fading text isn't enough.
4. Your skill score timer cannot run out mid-air, the timer is paused until you hit the ground. This has been a thing in the games and it infuriates me as it discourages players to not make big jumps.
5. Rewind should be a perk added, this perk would let you rewind 'once' during your skill chain and keep it. Rewinding to gain a lost chain wouldn't apply.
6. Foresight should be a perk added, this perk would have traffic show up as tiny dots on the minimap so they're easier to avoid.

MULTIPLAYER & FESTIVAL PLAYLIST----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. You aren't required to win an event for it to count towards your completion. Sure, you won't get the award, but it should count for the playlist regardless. It's annoying having to forcefully win a Trials or Playground Games event just for a car you already have so you can get a Playlist Completion Award.
2. In ranked, cars should be permanently ghosted. Eliminate the opportunity for rammers to ruin the race entirely.
3. Missing a checkpoint should not force a rewind. Missing one basically dooms you to last place in multiplayer. Instead, it should give you a temporary slowdown.
4. To prevent wallriding, only slow the player if they're physically touching the wall. The current system is too sensitive and will penalize you even if you simply love-tap the wall.
5. REMOVE FREEROAM RUSH. PERMANENTLY. IT'S NO FUN AND REQUIRES LUCK, NOT SKILL.
6. I suggest replacing freeroam rush with a Burnout Paradise-style racing type. Basically, you can take literally any route to the finish (asphalt and dirt), but you'll get reset if you drive off the road for longer then 10 seconds. Find your own route and figure out the fastest to win. This will actually take thinking and skill, and doesn't sound like the devs quickly and lazily thought it up.
7. Playground Games has three different gamemodes. You can have a team win with a best 2/3. So why on earth is it a best 3/5 on the game? This is just plain inefficiency, it should have three rounds.
8. 100%ing a season should award 5 super wheelspins. 100% on a Series would be 10 super wheelspins.

WHEELSPINS-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Super Wheelspins will not contain common items.
2. Wheelspins will not contain Autoshow Cars under 600K credits or under Legendary Rarity. To balance this out, getting cars will be rare.

TUNING/UPGRADES--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Tire Compound swapping shouldn't cost so much PI. The fact you can literally skip entire classes just by putting on race tires is ridiculous. Putting race tires on some D class cars will sometimes bump them UP TO A CLASS.
2. For the love of everything automotive, nerf AWD swapping. The fact you instantly get maxed out launch and acceleration as well easier handling basically forces the player to AWD swap all their cars to be competitive. It's stupid, and doesn't feel right. AWD SHOULD add a little bit of launch and acceleration, but swapping to AWD should mainly go to building rally cars.
3. When downloading other Tunes, the thumbnail of the tune will reflect the bodykits and wings/spoilers applied. I absolutely HATE forza aero, and when I can't get a certain PI and head to the tuning marketplace, all the thumbnails are the same despite the car having different kits applied, and it's a literal guess to find one without the ugly kits.
4. Applying race weight reduction will actually remove the other seats and change the interior.

GARAGE-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. DeBerti Designs, Pre-order cars, Barrett-Jackson, and Horizon Edition cars are in their own manufacturer categories.
2. Pre-modifed cars (like HOONIGAN) will have their creation year the time they were modified, not the year the stock model was created.
3. Sorting changes will be saved. If you organize your cars by PI Class, they'll stay that way unless you change it again.
4. You can create custom categories like in Motorsport.
5. New rarity: one-of-a-kind. Not sure what color it should be, but it means in real life, only one of the car exists. This applies to cars under HOONIGAN, Formula Drift, ETC. Also racing cars like the Audi Quattro S1, #199 Subaru WRX and the VW IDR.

FESTIVAL SHOWCASES-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. You can blueprint showcase events. You obviously can't change the route or what you race, but the vehicle you use, the weather, the season, and the song that plays you can change.
2. Drag Car on a straight VS. Skateboarder using a mega ramp would be pretty cool.

GAME PHYSICS-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Please, i'm begging you. Don't change the drift physics at all. Horizon 3's drift physics had such a high learning curve i still haven't mastered it after all this time. Horizon 4's was hard, sure, but it took a reasonable amount of time to master. Drifting physics are creamy-smooth right now, please don't change it.
2. Roadside objects slow you down waaaaay too much. This is an arcade racer, the only object that should actually slow you down when driving through it should be the drystone walls. Also, your cars should be able to break through them at any speed, getting stuck behind some tree or wall because you weren't going fast enough frustrates me.
3. The debris from broken roadside objects should become intangible after a second or so. If they get stuck behind a curb or bump up and you're driving a low car, it will literally keep you from getting up the curb, and sometimes bounce you back. How does that work?

CHARACTER CUSTOMIZATION------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. More character age types. Current playable characters are fine and should return, but please, add some other options other then all the characters looking 24-32. It'd be neat if you could play as some old 48 year old boomer, or a young 19 year old kid. Getting tired of every selectable character being a millennial. More age diversity please! Also one template character should be the original Horizon 1 protagonist, complete with RBF.
2. Legitimate body customization. While the classic default characters should serve as templates, it'd be nice to be able to change hairsyles, hair color, beard/mustaches for the dudes... HOWEVER, these should not be wheelspin prizes and all be available from the start of the game.
3. Drop the dances. Please.
4. But if you're gonna keep em, add the Spongebob Shuffle, Flare, and the Kazotsky Kick.
5. Stop with all the ridiculous cosmetics. I get if you want some goofy headbands and hats, but cut it out with the big-eye googles, crowns, pumpkin masks. dumb chicken costumes included.
6. STAY AWAY FROM HYPEBEAST CLOTHING. THIS ISN'T NEED FOR SPEED.
7. Custom clothing. Like ones you can apply vinyls to.

CAR CUSTOMIZATION------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Using other people's vinyls should NOT lock your design. it SHOULD however give a 3% cut to the original creator of the vinyl. The creator would also be notified that their design is being used.
2. Options to remove front/rear bumpers, as well as the hood one some cars would be sick. Certain upgrades would make previously unavailable body removals usable, such as adding a Twin Turbo swap your Lamborghini would make the rear removable.
3. Window stickers! However, you can't cover the entire windshield/window. You can cover the edges and passenger side of the windshield with as much as you like, but you can't just slap a massive sticker over the entire window/windshield.
4. More bodykits from brands in general.
5. Different Forza Aero options. The only one currently available is hideous on 99% of the cars in the game.
6. Front/rear bumpers as well as doors can be painted individually.
7. De-badging cars is an option.

RACES------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Street Scene should be one of the available race formats for custom routes.
2. Blueprints are deletable.
3. Street Scene should feel more illegal in general. Police sirens should be heard in the distance when doing a street race, and a police chopper flying over the race would be cool. Police will never chase or interact in any other way. This is Forza, not NFS.
4. On higher difficulties, you must stay in-between the checkpoints for them to count. Driving directly over a flag doesn't count, although hitting the inner side does.
5. Option to switch cars at the Race Start menu.
6. When doing festival-based custom routes, Horizon barriers, screens, and bleachers will be present. This will automatically be done by the game if the player uses a straight or corner used in a developer-created route.
7. Option to choose which direction the race starts in with custom checkpoints. It's extremely annoying finding the perfect start to your race only to find out the start is pointed in the opposite direction.

BARN FINDS-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Obviously not all, just suggestions.

1. '98 Toyota Supra RZ
2. '85 Sprinter Trueno GT Apex
3. '94 Mazda MX-5 Miata
4. '87 Nissan Skyline R31
5. '67 Nissan Fairlady Z
6. '95 Toyota MR2 GT
7. '84 Honda CRX
8. After unlocking a barn find, the same car is now available in the Autoshow. Autoshow based cars can be deleted, unlike their barn find counterparts.

HORIZON EDITION CARS---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Once again, just suggestions.

1. 1969 Dodge Charger (A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Air Skills Boost)
2. 2002 Nissan Skyline GTR R34(B-700 CLASS UPGRADE)(Speed Skills Boost)
3. 2020 Supra GR(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Drift Skills Boost)
4. 1985 Toyota Trueno(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Drift Skills Boost)
5. 2018 McLaren Senna(X-999 CLASS UPGRADE)(Credits Boost)
6. 1969 GTO Judge(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Burnout Skills Boost)
7. 2011 Koenigsegg Agera(X-999 CLASS UPGRADE)(Air Skills Boost)
8. 2002 Enzo Ferrari(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Speed Skills Boost)
9. 2011 Bugatti Veyron Super Sport(S2-998 CLASS UPGRADE)(Speed Skills Boost)
10. 2002 BMW M3-GTR(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Near Miss Skills Boost)
11. 2014 Terradyne Gurkha LAPV(B-700 CLASS UPGRADE)(Destruction Skills Boost)
12. 2001 Acura Integra Type-R(B-700 CLASS UPGRADE)(Near Miss Skills Boost)
13. 1997 Honda Civic Type-R(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Skills Boost)
14. 1992 Honda NSX-R(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Drift Skills Boost)
15. 2003 Honda S2000(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Credits Boost)
16. 2008 Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution X(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Air Skills Boost)
17. 2012 Eagle Speedster(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Speed Skills Boost)
18. 1962 Peel P50(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Skills Boost)
19. 1975 Ford Bronco(B-700 CLASS UPGRADE)(Destruction Skills Boost)
20. 1971 Plymouth Cuda 426 HEMI(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Burnout Skills Boost)
21. 2012 Bowler EXR S(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Destruction Skills Boost)
22. 2013 Audi R8 Coupe V10(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Influence Boost)
23. 1985 Ford RS200 Evolution(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Air Skills Boost)
24. 2004 Subaru Impreza WRX STI(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Credits Boost)
25. 2003 Volkswagen Golf R32(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Skills Boost)
26. 2014 Porsche 918 Spyder(S2-998 CLASS UPGRADE)(Speed Skills Boost)
27. 2005 Ford GT(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Near Miss Skills Boost)
28. 2019 Ford Ranger Raptor(C-600 CLASS UPGRADE)(Destruction Skills Boost)
29. 1971 Meyers Manx(C-600 CLASS UPGRADE)(Air Skills Boost)
30. 1969 Nissan Fairlady Z(A-800 CLASS UPGRADE)(Drift Skills Boost)
31. 2010 Lexus LFA(S1-900 CLASS UPGRADE)(Influence Boost)
32. 1995 Volkswagen Corrado VR6Idea: under the hood in forzavista, have the message 'take care of this one! -Dak' written on the engine cover in sharpie. Nice little throwback. Only on the Horizon Edition.(B-700 CLASS UPGRADE)(Near Miss Skills Boost)

HOUSES-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Everything you can access in the in-game pause menu can be accessed in your house.
2. Tuning and paining cars will have a little garage area when doing so. The car out on the driveway looks boring.

ELIMINATOR-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Don't. Just don't. It's garbage, and of all the things that have been added to Forza Horizon 4, this is by far the worst. Lay it to rest. It's not fun, and the game's realistic-spin-on-arcade-racing makes this even worse. The map makes the whole experience terrible as well, it wasn't designed for this, and even the fact you have to activate to 'fight' a player just shows how you were grasping at straws in the first place. This is coming from someone who was initially excited to try this gamemode out. I understand losing because i screwed up and crashed into a tree, that's fair. I DON'T UNDERSTAND HAVING TO GO 2MPH OVER EVERY LITTLE DIRT BUMP BECAUSE I'LL EITHER SPIN OUT, FLIP, OR GET ROUTED INTO A BUILDING.

DRIVATARS-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. In the options menu, you can have a choice to replace randomly generated Xbox accounts with actual racer names. Some could even be throwbacks, like naming racers Darius Flynt or Dak. Feels kinda soulless to race against people named 'WackyRiver3829' and 'SadBottle4356'
2. With harder difficulties, stop making the Drivatars more unfair to race against. Make them drive SMARTER. Have them use braking as little as possible, have them fully gun it on straights. The rubberbanding on harder difficulties is absolutely ridiculous, especially with the one drivatar who absolutely SMOKES everyone else. They drive like they're on slot tracks, and it just isn't fun. Giving expert-unbeatable drivatars cars that have impossible engine swaps, unreachable horsepower, ETC. shouldn't be in the game. I want to feel like i'm racing actual people on higher difficulties.
3. Bumping/making extended contact with drivatar's cars will make them try to get away from you. They'll beep if you ram them or tailgate too long, have muffled music playing inside the cars, make them feel like real people.
4. Drivatars will autoghost in freeroam mode, and spawn MUCH less frequently. Horizon 3 has been almost ruined because of the sheer amount of drivatars that spawn, and the ones that ram into you, for some reason.

SEASONS----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. I'm being honest here and i'm just saying I really don't care about the seasons feature. spring through autumn has barely any gameplay difference, and winter is just plain annoying. It's your pride and joy for whatever reason, so I really don't expect for this feature to be retired.
2. I do think you should be able to freeroam in any season you want at any time, but switching seasons would not let you do online events or connect to Horizon Life until you changed it back. Forcefully being stuck in winter for a WEEK straight makes the game no fun to play.
3. I mean... what if seasons worked realistically?

-December 1st to February 28th: Winter
-March 1st to May 31st: Spring
-June 1st to August 31st: Summer
-September 1st to November 30th: Autumn
Combined with the 'play privately in any season you want' this would be great. Also, it won't be in-game summer during real-life christmas time like it was last year!
HORIZON STORY----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Stop making some chapters so hard to three-star. Especially in these weird, convoluted ways where you have to take some alternate route that's never referenced in the game at all. Take one of the LaRacer chapters, it's impossible to three star unless at the start, you pull a full 180 and go backwards, THEN you have a chance to thee star it. Have you heard of a thing called foreshadowing? hints? They're pretty big in games these days.
2. Why not have a real racing celeb like Ken Block be the star of a HOONIGAN based Horizon Story? Imagine if Tesla came back to the game and Elon Musk decided to show up at the Horizon Festival to have a Horizon story based around Tesla and other electric cars?

CARS-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is all the cars I personally would like to see featured in the game. Starred* ones will not be available in the Autoshow and will be seasonal rewards.

1. 2016 Apollo Arrow*
2. 2004 Gumpert Apollo
3. 1985 Honda City Turbo II
4. 2002 Subaru Impreza WRX STI
5. 1971 Plymouth Roadrunner
6. 2008 Top Gear P45*
7. 2017 Honda Civic DX
8. 2018 Nissan Sentra
9. 2020 Supra GR
10. 2010 Lexus LFA
11. 2020 Ferrari SF90 Stradale
12. 2020 Chevrolet Corvette C8
13. 2015 Ferrari P80C*
14. 1967 Ferrari Thomassima II
15. 1985 Toyota Trueno
16. 1995 Toyota MR2 GT
17. 1999 Dodge Dakota Sport
18. 2019 Lamborghini Huracan Performante
19. 2020 Aspark Owl*
20. 2020 Ferrari F8 Tributo
21. 2020 McLaren Elva
22. 2020 Aston Martin DBX
23. 2020 Ford Bronco R
24. 2013 Peugeot 208 T16 Pikes Peak
25. 1982 Nissan 240RS
26. 1985 DeTomaso Pantera GT5-S
27. 2014 Equus Bass 770
28. 2011 Hyundai IX20
29. 2012 Scion TC
30. 2007 Toyota Camry
31. 1993 Volkswagen Fox
32. 1979 Toyota Tercel
33. 1970 Dodge Coronet Super Bee
34. 1977 Lancia Scorpion
35. 2005 TVR Typhon
36. 2002 TVR Tamora*
37. 1971 Ulyanovsk UAZ-469
38. 1955 Alpine A106
39. 1999 Toyota Altezza RS200 Z-Edition
40. 2010 Toyota FJ Cruiser
41. 1985 Lotus Espirit Turbo

CONCLUSION-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, it's finally done. Hope the devs decide to read through this since I put a ton of work into it. Maybe the sheer size of this thing will get their attention. Thanks so much for reading through this (probably skimming, i don't blame you) If any of my music/cadesign suggestions make it into the game i'd completely lose it. Hopefully Forza Horizon 5 is a masterpiece, regardless of what's listed here.
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2021.12.21 05:56 MillennialBets$PNTM will likely be closing on a large, high quality merger based on the evidence (and soon)

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2021.12.21 05:36 MillennialBets$UAN - 2022 $60 Yield Distributions Multibagger

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2021.12.21 00:58 MillennialBetsReddit IPO Valuation

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2021.12.20 18:05 MillennialBetsAkebia Therapeutics $AKBA - Deep-Dive Due Diligence Report

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2021.12.20 13:23 TransGoTaThis is sad and hilarious at the same time....

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2021.12.20 00:41 MillennialBetsPirate Gang Starter Pack Update and Futures Announcement Analysis – Upcoming Catalyst and Booty Bonanza ($ZIM)

Date: 2021-12-19 14:44:31, Author:u/SpiritBearBC, (Karma: 9239, Created:Jun-2017)
SubReddit:vitards, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
Tickers mentioned in this post:
CLF 20.59(0.24%)CME 224.78(-1.88%)DAC 70.07(0.81%)MT 32.03(-0.53%)ZIM 50.96(2.41%)
Ahoy ye mateys! What’s that over yonder on the horizon? Futures Island?! Land ho!
The announcement of container shipping futures has gone seemingly unnoticed, but I believe we should be paying much more attention than we are. This announcement has prompted me to provide a brief update on the state of the trade since my Starter Pack released 6 months ago in June , and to discuss what I believe will be the impact of this announcement. Even if you have no intention of trading futures, this should impact your favourite shipping stocks. If you are uninterested in being a degenerate, you will be able to use futures to hedge out some of the risk involved in buying shipping companies.
Skip this if you're up to date on the shipping trade
Last time I touched on this was six months ago, and the macro factors have mostly played out as expected while stock performance has played out worse than expected. I did a quick re-read of that DD and while it’s too early to say that the macro environment content has been vindicated, I can’t help but feel proud that my analysis has played out to this point. In fact, I was actually too conservative and shipping rates continued to moon. I just would have preferred if the ZIM stock price did too.
That said, we all know the ZIM stock price is ridiculous. At the time I originally posted the DD in June ZIM was trading at roughly $45. It’s since had about $15 in EPS (net of $4.50 dividend payments) added to the balance sheet, with only a $6 increase in share price appreciation. Think about this: if you were kicking yourself for not buying when ZIM crashed to $35 in mid-July, the increase in assets on the balance sheet since then is equivalent to buying ZIM at $36 in mid-July.
On the supply side, the orderbook of container shipping companies has expanded to 23.5% of the Industry Orderbook-to-Fleet ratio (Slide 24 of DAC's Q3 Earnings Presentation). Of this, the new capacity in the entire orderbook is almost solely concentrated in the large 12k+ TEU ships (New Panamax + ULCV vessels). This will have a disproportionate effect on the largest trade routes but will of course have a cascading effect as medium sized ships get downshifted to less popular routes. Further, some capacity is coming online in 2022 but it’s not until 2023 and 2024 when the majority of this orderbook is realized. This leaves the supply-side factors of container shipping in a bullish environment for at least another year.
At the time I wrote my DD, the orderbook ratio was 18% and I noted in June that 25% is when I start to consider leaving for the exits. 23.5% is disappointingly close to my Maginot Line of 25%. I originally theorized that for container ship companies to deserve a higher multiple that they collectively need to exhibit restraint in expanding their fleets. All the free cashflow in the world won’t do shareholders an ounce of good if shipping companies just burn the cash in new ships that will eventually depress shipping rates. In that case, it would be a logical market response for shipping companies to trade at a negative Net Present Value – you only need to look at the NPV of actual cash coming back to shareholders to realize the cash bonanza may as well not even exist. The fleet expansion in the mid-2000s (where the percent ratio was in the mid 50s) combined with suddenly reduced demand led to a huge downturn in rates and led to their previous high cash flows being shredded. Keep an eye on this. Buybacks and dividends are the answer here – not more ships.
On the demand side, Maritime Strategies International Ltd. Forecasts a 4.3% trade growth to 230 million TEU being delivered next year (Slide 23 of DAC’s Q3 earnings presentation). US durable goods spending has declined slightly since the summer. US durable goods imports are down slightly, US manufacturers inventory has declined since summer, and retailers (who mostly sell durable goods) have flatlined already depressed inventory levels. This is further offset by us being past the holidays with highest expected spending. Mostly, I’d describe the net effect of all this to be some inventory recovery to help demand stay elevated, but that people are spending slightly less on durable goods going forward. Omicron could shift consumer preferences again towards durable goods but absent fresh stimulus I doubt that will happen in any meaningful way.
A real bear case could be the downshift in manufacturing production in China (due to any number of events – Evergrande, energy crisis, government policy, you name it), causing the demand for containerized goods to go down because there is less available to ship. Last, and I don’t have the expertise to analyze this, but I would expect material GDP decreases to have an unfortunate effect on container shipping.
In summary, I would expect a slight decrease in demand next year alongside a slight increase in supply, leading to some softening in rates in 2022 compared to today’s ridiculous highs. ZIM will continue to print. 2023 is when I expect things to start to normalize. If the order book continues to expand, I expect shipping to be moribund in 2024 and the market to price these companies accordingly. I don’t have the ability to effectively forecast the impact of all the above, but I would very roughly expect rate charts to look like this:
My extremely rough prediction for Freight Rates in 2022 and 2023
One last note: I mentioned this in my original DD but it seems to get lost in the hype. Just like we are aware that the infrastructure bill is only a minor part of the picture of the steel trade (adding 3% to expected US steel demand and probably crowding out some private investment), the port blockages operate in a similar manner in the shipping trade. They have a minor impact on rates and indirectly reduce a small amount of capacity, but they are mostly a distraction from the overall macro picture. Look at the orderbook and demand indicators. The ship counts at ports are noise.
On February 28, 2022, the CME Group will introduce container shipping futures on the NYMEX . The first forward month will be March 2022, and you’ll be able trade futures 2 years out. The prices used will be the Freightos Baltic Index Rates and will be priced in FEU (Forty-Foot Equivalent Units, which is just double the TEU prices).
There are six contracts from among the Freightos routes that will be traded:

• China/East Asia to US West Coast
• US West Coast to China/East Asia
• China/East Asia to US East Coast
• China/East Asia to North Europe
• North Europe to China/East Asia
• China/East Asia to Mediterranean

I’m personally curious about how extra fees interact with the futures prices (are seasonal surcharges included, for example?). I also intend to research how the Freightos rates are calculated (i.e. read the Wikipedia article). I’m sure there’s other things I’m missing too. However, those are details for another time as we have a lot more substantial ramifications to concern ourselves with.
I believe that the market is pricing a sudden crash in rates, despite most current analysis that I find predicting something close to what I wrote above (take this HIS Markit report for example). At the moment, if you are considering a position in shipping then you must develop an independent opinion on what you believe to be the future rates environment. It’s what Mintzmyer, Catlin, et. al. did months ago to predict that container shipping rates will be elevated for some time to come. I believe the people making investment decisions hold the opinion that “the supply chain will correct itself with higher future production because that’s how markets work.” Take billionaire investor Ken Fisher who falls squarely in that camp (and who you should follow on Twitter). I theorize that this pervasive attitude is holding shipping companies back from realizing fair value as no smart money wishes to take a position on the future of rates.
Futures serve as an independent and reasonable proxy with which to generate your Discounted Cash Flow models. Having clear, transparent, and direct market evidence of the stickiness of rates generated by people with a lot of cash at stake should serve as a catalyst for investment models to be less skittish about the future of rates and more fairly value these companies.
For example, let’s say that institutional investment models are overly conservative about ZIM’s future earnings potential because they would rather err on the side of being too cautious than too aggressive. They independently state that in an environment where rates fall 60% ZIM would only earn $10 EPS in 2022, and $0 in 2023 and beyond. They would then be correct to value ZIM roughly at where it’s at now. But if futures with only a 30% rate decline suggests that $ZIM will earn $25 EPS in 2022 at the prices indicated, then that could override previous models and we could see more institutional money flow in to capture that present value.
I don’t have empirical proof of this. Anecdotally, say what you will about how ridiculous CLF and MT’s current PEs are when they range between 2.5 and 4 – at least with their product having futures trading their PEs are more than 1.
Let’s say that smart money doesn’t quite believe the elevated rates that they see in the futures contracts. They might still buy into shipping companies regardless of that belief. Why? They’re able to go Long-Short. While not technically an arbitrage, it’s close enough to that for our purposes. Here’s how it works:
Joe Schmow Money Manager sees futures rates indicating that $ZIM will make $25 EPS in 2022, but the market is also pricing $ZIM as though they are going to only make $10 EPS. Joe agrees with the market view that $ZIM is only making $10 EPS and thinks futures are overly elevated. However, Joe is risk averse and sees an opportunity. He can play both sides and profit no matter what.
Joe Schmow will go long ZIM and short the futures contracts. In other words, he makes a bet that ZIM will go up and freight rates will go down. This way, he makes money in one of two scenarios:

1. The futures rates turns out to be accurate and ZIM makes $25. The share appreciation in ZIM provides more than enough gain to offset losses (if any) from going short futures.
2. The futures rates turns out to be false and ZIM makes only $10. $ZIM’s share price remains stagnant, and Joe makes a fortune going short the futures.

Again, not technically an arbitrage, but it may as well be. In such a scenario, I theorize that the only rational response is for smart money to flow into equities and for futures contracts to be sold until equilibrium is reached. Even if Joe is bullish ZIM, this long-short strategy is still the correct strategy. He’s able to hedge out his rates risks and realize a much safer, albeit slightly smaller, return.
This assumes that there is a disparity between futures rates and share prices. What if both futures rates and share prices are depressed? Then we will individually speculate. More on that later.
Shipping company management may wish to lock in rates in the future, but may not be able to for whatever reason. Negotiations can be costly and time-consuming. Now management, who will be in the best position to know what to expect for future rates, will be able to manage their business more effectively and send clear market signals that they wouldn’t have been able to before. Here’s how:

1. Management believes rates will decline in the future: They will be able to go to the futures market and lock-in those rates now without a need to negotiate with individual customers. They can thus hedge out risk and increase shareholder returns.
2. Management believes rates will appreciate in the future, or rates will remain the same and share prices don’t reflect this: They buy their own shares both with company funds and management buys shares in their own personal accounts. The shares are undervalued and can expect to see some appreciation in the future.
3. Management believes rates and shares are fairly priced: They do nothing. This is also a signal, albeit one that’s harder to detect.

No matter what happens, we can more easily identify industry insiders’ beliefs about the state of container shipping, and those companies can eke out higher returns from it too. Do you think Lourenco Goncalves would be buying CLF shares in his own personal account if he didn’t believe either futures rates will appreciate or that his shares weren’t undervalued as compared to the current futures prices?
Let’s say you get nervous about the current state of shipping rates, but you still believe ZIM will print money. Now, you can go long-short too! You’ll be able to hedge out some of the risk of buying shares and collect a high, yet safer return.
Just like our example from earlier, you go long the equity and you hedge out the risk by going short an appropriate amount of futures contracts. I’m going to leave the math to someone smarter than me to explain because it involves identifying the appropriate routes alongside exposure to spot, but this is possible for you to do with a little bit of homework.
Throughout this post I’ve been assuming that rates will at least resemble the reality on the seas in 2022. But what if they don’t? What if the futures prices imply a rate decline of 60% near the end of 2022 and ZIM is indeed appropriately priced against the futures rates?
The answer is easy: Go long those futures contracts. You’re a speculator in the casino now.
For me, the facts that I mentioned in the update above are clear. There is very little supply coming online in 2022, demand is subdued but remains strong, and inventories remain low. So if futures rates are unduly depressed, buckle up your boot straps and load up your margin account. You have the opportunity to make some insanely leveraged gains if they are indeed as suppressed as I theorize they are.
On February 28 I intend to be extremely long ZIM April options if share prices are around the current prices. I also fully intend to have my margin account fully locked and loaded the second futures contracts open up for trade on February 28. If the futures rates shoot up before I get my chance to buy, I profit on the ZIM Aprils bigly because I expect the ZIM share prices to appreciate as equilibrium in the long-short play is reached. If they remain depressed, I’ll be exiting most my April calls and instead leveraging up in futures in future months.
What if GDP contraction materializes shortly after and I get shipwrecked? I suppose a captain always goes down with the ship. It’s a risk I’m willing to take - I’ve never been more confident in anything since the Aditya floor.
I’ve been in and out of this trade twice in the last six months, getting extremely lucky to catch the peaks and troughs both times. I missed my opportunity to truly load the boat on ZIM at $46 on ex dividend (yarrr I wasn’t manning my station that day 😞), but I did make a starter position at roughly $50 for the following:

• 10x Apr 40cs
• 1x synthetic long expiring April.

I intend to triple my position if ZIM goes below $46. I also intend to load up on leveraged ZIM Aprils in the latter end of February if share prices remain around this area.
Last, my fair value estimate. I’m sure someone has a much better DCF model than me. Here’s my extremely rudimentary and conservative $ZIM price target calculation that I spent 1 minute doing:

ZIM Rough Liquidation Value	$40
2021 Q4 EPS	$13
2022 EPS	$20
2023 and beyond EPS	$0
🤡 Clown Market Adjustment Factor	-$8
ZIM Price Target	$65

I think ZIM is worth far more than $65, but I’ll still probably be out then.
Pirate gang remains strong going into 2022, but a lot of you need to quit trying to go for 300% or 0. The daily was hard to read with folks wondering if their Dec 60cs were safe. If you want leverage it’s fine to buy in the money options or spreads and accept slightly lower returns while taking on substantially less risk.
These long-short transactions are not something I’m personally accustomed to making. I would love feedback on this thesis, implementation of this trade idea, or if I’m just missing something obvious.
TL;DR: Futures will provide either the catalyst we were hoping for or a high-probability speculation opportunity. Come February 28 have your futures account open and your short-dated calls locked and loaded.
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.20 00:39 MillennialBetsCall the $UBER! Destination: Gainsville, USA

Date: 2021-12-17 13:29:47, Author:u/BigDaddyDLo, (Karma: 2839, Created:Apr-2013)
SubReddit:wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
GS 381.8(-3.92%)MS 97.13(-3.16%)JP 1.05(0%)RBC 140.09(0%)TLH 150.35(0.77%)UBER 39.68(5.25%)UBS 17.41(-2.52%)
Hey all, realized I should post my DDs for WSBOGs as well. Enjoy! Original DD
​

Drive with Uber and you can afford first class like me! – Rose DeWitt Bukater, Titanic Survivor

• Similar setup to Dec ‘19-Jan ‘20 rebound (1mo return ~+45%)
• Analyst EBITDA estimates too low; avg PT of $70! (+85%)
• Explosive ’22 EBITDA growth on increased op leverage
• Consistent 2022 Top Pick on Street; screens great for fund managers
• CEO bought 200k shares, major vote of confidence
• Wandered desert for '21, Entering promised land '22
• Calls price for good upside!

Uber is best known for its B2C ridesharing platform, but the variety of logistic-based businesses under its umbrella drive the company's full value. This includes B2B businesses like Uber Freight, which in ‘21 acquired Transplace- a global leader in logistics and supply chain management software- during the early innings of a historic transformation in both industries. Additionally, in markets where Uber could not compete immediately (i.e. China) they invested in leading regional startups (i.e. Didi), allowing them to still profit from the global transportation & logistics transformation while gaining optionality through simple strategic sales. Uber has also developed subscription and loyalty programs, locking in their customer base while taking market share. A consistently smart, strategic approach has made Uber one of the great companies to come out of the 2010s tech boom.
UBER has been getting hammered nearly all of 2021 for various reasons, none of which are due to fundamental shifts in the business. It's a far stronger company than pre-covid, as the pandemic era forced Uber to increase efficiency & financial leverage, making them more profitable on lower bookings. Return to full volume = Profits like Splash Waterfalls (see: Ludacris). Did I mention the CEO just said they had their best bookings week ever? Additionally, they should benefit from travel news over the next month as it continues to see strong recovery momentum despite Omicron.
Two important calendar events happen annually: Entering the new year and the second half. Funds are always for stocks to drive outperformance in that next period, and in the case of Dec, this leads to supply overhangs from tax-loss harvesting (TLH) suddenly being met with swift buying once the “coast is clear”. Like the overhang in ‘19, Uber could rebound out of this period toward the mid-to-high 40s where the CEO purchased 200k shares last month. Market mechanics converging with positive fundamental news should support a near-term multiple rerating.
Recap: This play is taking advantage of a rebound as the coast clears from overwhelming Dec supply (TLH & omicron fears), buying demand re-enters (week of 12/17) helping it break its downward channel, and a sentiment & technical reversal is signaled, leading to further upside momentum.

• Revenue Growth: +49% ’22, +31% ‘23
  • Fwd P/S '22: 2.9x ... valuation and growth speak for themselves. Name one other company growing at ~40% 2yr CAGR trading at only 2.9x Fwd P/S.
• EBITDA Growth: +243% ‘22, +188% ‘23
  • Explosive growth a direct result of prior investments across their platforms
  • Does not yet account for CEO’s comments on 12/14 reaffirming 4Q21 EBITDA toward the higher end of the guide (orig: $25m-$75m), which likely flows through to slight estimate raises across the next calendar year as well.
  • Uber continues to approach full profitability, currently estimated for Q2 ’23. I suspect Uber may pull this expectation forward at their Feb ER.
• Free Cash Flow Growth: ’22 +190%, ’23 +268%
  • UBER’s efficiency initiatives have it on the brink of becoming a colossal FCF generation machine, with ’22 expected to be the year they flip FCF positive for the first time in history. Guess what factor should do well in the next phase of this market? My money is increasing FCF will be top of that list.
• Equity Investments
  • The primary culprit of their Q3 miss, equity investment revaluation (i.e. Didi stake of 144mil shares) drove the bulk of their -$2.4B net income loss, not losses from actual business operations.
  • CEO looking to strategically raise cash from these investments as they rebound in the future; with Didi relisting on Chinese markets, it will eventually flow through as a colossal earnings tailwind in the future.
• Analyst Price Target: $69.50, +86% Upside
  • The buffer makes it a fantastic candidate to rebound and still have plenty of upside following their February ER.
  • UBER named a Top 2022 Pick by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS so far. What do all these have in common? They comprise the bulk of investable assets and represent a significant portion of sell-side flow. Good PMs drive outperformance by buying early in a price turnaround and that’s roughly where we are.

Technicals are horrific due to the relentless nature of the TLH in Q4 as managers offset insanely strong gains elsewhere. However, 2020’s resistance level of $37 has become the new support during the December selling and it is very clearly basing; once the TLH subsides this week, we should have a quick zip upward, officially breaking the upper channel of the downtrend, in turn triggering positive momentum signals which leads to fast money re-entering the stock. See Chart 1 in Appendix
Note: All positions assume a rebound to mid-to-high $40s by expiration. Prior resistance highs were $64.
Gen X/Boomers: Buy stock! No brainer.
Risk-Averse: April ’22 C42.5 currently presents 1-3x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Quasi-Risk Averse: March ’22 C42.5 currently presents 3.9x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Pump It Up! Junior: Feb '22 C45 currently presents 4.7x upside on a post-ER rebound to $50, expands to 9.5x on a rebound to $55, 85% of prior highs.
Pump It Up!: Jan ’22 C40 currently presents 5.5-9x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
WSB Delight: Jan ’22 C42 currently presents 6.5-11x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
​
My positions: I’m accumulating all of the above, finishing my purchasing over the days ahead as we take advantage of volatility from options expiration and the market holding its breath through the Fed announcement. Instead of posting this write up on Dec expiration (12/17) as planned, I decided to crank it out earlier due to the attention boost UBER got 12/14 so people could start legging in positions. Keep in mind the current positioning of the options market should create a gravitational pull toward $40 into 12/17 expiration at the same time TLH starts to subside.
Regarding regulation, which I originally cut for length due to it not being relevant to this trade:

I'm glad you mentioned that as I cut it out for length. As RBC stated in a recent report:
We view outcomes similar to Prop 22 in CA as more likely, where driver protections are put in place with an emphasis on those pursuing full-time driving which affects the minority of drivers.
As BTIG stated in a recent report titled 'UK Ruling More of a Win Than Headlines Suggest':
UBER reclassified UK drivers as workers in 3/2021 and competitors didn't match, which meant thatUBER's costs [already] went up...The net result should be... a level playing field... and finally a scenario in which UBER could raise prices to offset the higher costs... since the reclassification.

Original Comment
Chart 1:
​
Stock found solid support at 2020 resistance levels, leading me to believe this is the bottom. A reversal toward the upper end of the channel should lead to a breakout from the downtrend in price and sentiment.
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.16 06:41 MillennialBetsCall the $UBER! Destination: Gainsville

Date: 2021-12-15 08:45:26, Author:u/BigDaddyDLo, (Karma: 2799, Created:Apr-2013)
SubReddit:WallStreetBets, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
GS 389.91 MS 99.43 JP 1.06 RBC 140.09 TLH 149.55 UBER 37.83 UBS 17.59

Drive with Uber and you can afford first class like me! – Rose DeWitt Bukater, Titanic Survivor

• Similar setup to Dec ‘19-Jan ‘20 rebound (1mo return ~+45%)
• Analyst EBITDA estimates too low; avg PT of $70! (+85%)
• Explosive ’22 EBITDA growth on increased op leverage
• Consistent 2022 Top Pick on Street; screens great for fund managers
• CEO bought 200k shares, major vote of confidence
• Wandered desert for '21, Entering promised land '22
• Calls price for good upside!

Uber is best known for its B2C ridesharing platform, but the variety of logistic-based businesses under its umbrella drive the company's full value. This includes B2B businesses like Uber Freight, which in ‘21 acquired Transplace- a global leader in logistics and supply chain management software- during the early innings of a historic transformation in both industries. Additionally, in markets where Uber could not compete immediately (i.e. China) they invested in leading regional startups (i.e. Didi), allowing them to still profit from the global transportation & logistics transformation while gaining optionality through simple strategic sales. Uber has also developed subscription and loyalty programs, locking in their customer base while taking market share. A consistently smart, strategic approach has made Uber one of the great companies to come out of the 2010s tech boom.
UBER has been getting hammered nearly all of 2021 for various reasons, none of which are due to fundamental shifts in the business. It's a far stronger company than pre-covid, as the pandemic era forced Uber to increase efficiency & financial leverage, making them more profitable on lower bookings. Return to full volume = Profits like Splash Waterfalls (see: Ludacris). Did I mention the CEO just said they had their best bookings week ever? Additionally, they should benefit from travel news over the next month as it continues to see strong recovery momentum despite Omicron.

Free Military Dating Sites In Usa People

Two important calendar events happen annually: Entering the new year and the second half. Funds are always for stocks to drive outperformance in that next period, and in the case of Dec, this leads to supply overhangs from tax-loss harvesting (TLH) suddenly being met with swift buying once the “coast is clear”. Like the overhang in ‘19, Uber could rebound out of this period toward the mid-to-high 40s where the CEO purchased 200k shares last month. Market mechanics converging with positive fundamental news should support a near-term multiple rerating.
Recap: This play is taking advantage of a rebound as the coast clears from overwhelming Dec supply (TLH & omicron fears), buying demand re-enters (week of 12/17) helping it break its downward channel, and a sentiment & technical reversal is signaled, leading to further upside momentum.

• Revenue Growth: +49% ’22, +31% ‘23
  • Fwd P/S '22: 2.9x ... valuation and growth speak for themselves. Name one other company growing at ~40% 2yr CAGR trading at only 2.9x Fwd P/S.
• EBITDA Growth: +243% ‘22, +188% ‘23
  • Explosive growth a direct result of prior investments across their platforms
  • Does not yet account for CEO’s comments on 12/14 reaffirming 4Q21 EBITDA toward the higher end of the guide (orig: $25m-$75m), which likely flows through to slight estimate raises across the next calendar year as well.
  • Uber continues to approach full profitability, currently estimated for Q2 ’23. I suspect Uber may pull this expectation forward at their Feb ER.
• Free Cash Flow Growth: ’22 +190%, ’23 +268%
  • UBER’s efficiency initiatives have it on the brink of becoming a colossal FCF generation machine, with ’22 expected to be the year they flip FCF positive for the first time in history. Guess what factor should do well in the next phase of this market? My money is increasing FCF will be top of that list.
• Equity Investments
  • The primary culprit of their Q3 miss, equity investment revaluation (i.e. Didi stake of 144mil shares) drove the bulk of their -$2.4B net income loss, not losses from actual business operations.
  • CEO looking to strategically raise cash from these investments as they rebound in the future; with Didi relisting on Chinese markets, it will eventually flow through as a colossal earnings tailwind in the future.
• Analyst Price Target: $69.50, +86% Upside
  • The buffer makes it a fantastic candidate to rebound and still have plenty of upside following their February ER.
  • UBER named a Top 2022 Pick by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS so far. What do all these have in common? They comprise the bulk of investable assets and represent a significant portion of sell-side flow. Good PMs drive outperformance by buying early in a price turnaround and that’s roughly where we are.

Technicals are horrific due to the relentless nature of the TLH in Q4 as managers offset insanely strong gains elsewhere. However, 2020’s resistance level of $37 has become the new support during the December selling and it is very clearly basing; once the TLH subsides this week, we should have a quick zip upward, officially breaking the upper channel of the downtrend, in turn triggering positive momentum signals which leads to fast money re-entering the stock. See Chart 1 in Appendix
Note: All positions assume a rebound to mid-to-high $40s by expiration. Prior resistance highs were $64.
Gen X/Boomers: Buy stock! No brainer.
Risk-Averse: April ’22 C42.5 currently presents 1-3x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Quasi-Risk Averse: March ’22 C42.5 currently presents 3.9x upside, expands to 5.5x on sustained momentum to $55 following Feb ER.
Pump It Up! Junior: Feb '22 C45 currently presents 4.7x upside on a post-ER rebound to $50, expands to 9.5x on a rebound to $55, 85% of prior highs.
Pump It Up!: Jan ’22 C40 currently presents 5.5-9x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
WSB Delight: Jan ’22 C42 currently presents 6.5-11x upside on a rebound toward mid-to-high $40s
​
My positions: I’m accumulating all of the above, finishing my purchasing over the days ahead as we take advantage of volatility from options expiration and the market holding its breath through the Fed announcement. Instead of posting this write up on Dec expiration (12/17) as planned, I decided to crank it out earlier due to the attention boost UBER got 12/14 so people could start legging in positions.
Regarding regulation, which I originally cut for length due to it not being relevant to this trade:

I'm glad you mentioned that as I cut it out for length. As RBC stated in a recent report:
We view outcomes similar to Prop 22 in CA as more likely, where driver protections are put in place with an emphasis on those pursuing full-time driving which affects the minority of drivers.
As BTIG stated in a recent report titled 'UK Ruling More of a Win Than Headlines Suggest':
UBER reclassified UK drivers as workers in 3/2021 and competitors didn't match, which meant that UBER's costs [already] went up. ...The net result should be... a level playing field... and finally a scenario in which UBER could raise prices to offset the higher costs... since the reclassification.

Original Comment
Chart 1:
Stock found solid support at 2020 resistance levels, leaving me to believe this is the bottom. A reversal toward the upper end of the channel should lead to a breakout from the downtrend in price and sentiment.
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.15 08:34 LizaRheaThese companies are shooting themselves in the foot

submitted byLizaRheatoantiwork [link][comments]

2021.12.14 20:56 MillennialBets$BBAI - This AI Pure Play De-Spac Is Very Close to a Gamma Squeeze - ONly 3M shs out 35M before merging. SOme 2M shorted. Read the DD with redemptions, developments, catalysts, etc.

Date: 2021-12-14 11:24:41, Author:u/invest_opinions, (Karma: 603, Created:Oct-2021)
SubReddit:squeezeplays, DD Click Here
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
AI 30.75 GIGGU 10.3 LDOS 88.325 MSFT 324.72 PLTR 18.405 AEI 0.61 DHS 80.27 BBAI 8.19
Let's start with the mosty atractive part at BBAI
$BBAI - a pure play AI stock has only 3M shs on the float out the 135M oustanding.Some 2M might be shorted. Here are the details:
Why $BBAI is shortsqueeze candidate?:
$BBAI is a result of a business combination between $GIG (GicCapital4) and Bigbear.ai - a very well known Artifial Intelligence Platform with global coverage. The merging Vote tok place on DEc. 2 2021.
From 45Mshs (outstanding shares before merging) 36M were public float.
According to the merging docs just released yesterday - 24M out of those 36M shs were redeemed - meaning that now the float stands at only 12M share.
You can check the numbers here:
https://ir.bigbear.ai/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-21-355558/0001193125-21-355558.pdf
The business combination has been preceded by 2 important moves -

1. Bigbear.ai value has been discounted from almost 1.6B to 1.35B essentially giving a bigger sgare of the company for the same share of GIG.
2. GIGCapital had a backstop agreement with AE Industrial Partners where AEI bought 8M shs at $10. This is important because AE Industrial Partners are actually the private owners of Big Bear AI before the merger. Essentially the early investors have bought more 8M of $GIG shares to own even more of the public company.

What is even more juicy - Of the 12M (some 11M an something)$BBAIshares, appears 8m were purchased by AE, leaving 3m shares available outside of the PE firm that out the deal together! Very thin float in other words.
This is geting confirmed also by GIG/BBAI last 8K : As noted above, the per share redemption price of $10.00073 for holders of Public Shares electing redemption was paid out of GigCapital4’s trust account, which after reductions for the redemptions, had a balance immediately prior to the Closing of approximately $110.02 million.
If we take out the 80M deal with AEI - that leaves $30M - meaning 3M shares.
In the last 2 weeks we can see some 2.5 -3M shares of $GIG sold short in the daily reports and some other 0.5M of $BBAI (same stock after the merging).
Also to note that CTB on Fintell is above 10% showing some competition building there between short sellers and a reduced float available for loan. Still waiting for some data on ORTEX.
I would say that, if $BBAI will have a day with 1-2 M shares traded, we will def' notice if our float estimation is correct as it should trigger a gamma squeeze.
OK, so $BBAI can be a shortsqueeze candidate as long as it has intrinsec value, right?
Wait, but Who is $BBAI
Big bear provides decision dominance (as they say) to intelligence communities, national defence and global corporations. Simplisticaly put: they analyze huge volumes of that, use a smart machine and can predict enemy moves, supply chain problems, pridct the outcome of naval battle. etc.
The bigger that volume of data and the longer the built of the AI, the beter the results.
Bigbear.ai is the second pure play stock on Artifial Intelligence. You probably know the first one - $AI (C3.ai) jumped some 200% after IPO and stayed in the headlines for months.
Let's see just how valuable is $BBAI and what can move it higher triggering that juicy short squeeze. (Also - some pretty good reason to go long on it for some years)
I. Right market - AI market is booming and everybody knows that.
BBAI is not onoy in the right market but also outperforms that market.
The global Artificial Intelligence (AI) market size is expected to gain momentum by reaching USD 360.36 billion by 2028 while exhibiting a CAGR of 33.6% between 2021 to 2028.
BigBear.ai’s is growing even faster: Customers is booming: U.S. Intelligence Community, Department of Defense, and U.S. Federal Government, space companies, logistics companies, etc. Some MOU with UAV Factory and Redwaire is building for new lines of business as well.
Added more than $150 million of new contract awards in the third quarter only bringing total backlog to approximately $485 million as of September 30, 2021. Only in this Q3 only:

• Entered into a one-year contract with the Defense Intelligence Agency to develop a force element tracking and identity platform utilizing Machine Assisted Rapid Repository Services (“MARS”) solution.
• Awarded the five-year, single award TACTICALCRUISER contract by the United States Cyber Command.
• Awarded one of two Global Force Information Management Phase 1 Prototype contracts by the United States Army.
• Entered into a three-year commercial partnership with Terran Orbital to support manufacturing and supply chain optimization, constellation tasking optimization, space situational awareness analytics, and sensor exploitation to identify relevant insights.

Also this September BBAI has been selcted by Virgin Orbit to provide AI support for their launcing missions.
https://virginorbit.com/the-latest/bigbear-ai-enters-into-transformational-commercial-partnership-with-virgin-orbit-to-deploy-ai-powered-analytics-platform-for-end-to-end-responsive-launch-solutions/
As you can see their contracts get bigger and thier customer base is growing with famous names.
Any of this new contracts/announcements can send them flying anyday igniting that shortsqueeze.
II. Second reason to bet on BBAI:
Leadership that have the right connections and the right knowledge
Defence and intelligence communities are hard difficult to penetrate unless there is some trust built in years. I;ve selected 2 key pple that you should know about:
Reginal Brothers - CEO
'Reggie' Brothers has deep connections and knowledge with in the military and intelligence R&D. Beside being former CTO at Peraton, Dr. Brothers served as Under Secretary for Science and Technology at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) (Obama nominee - yup) where he was responsible for oversight of Department of Defense (DoD) laboratories and helped ensure the long-term strategic direction of the Department’s Science and Technology programs. Dr. Brothers has also held senior roles as Technical Fellow, Director of Mission Applications and Director of Advanced Programs and Technology at BAE Systems, Program Manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) etc.
Sam Gordy - a recent addition and meaningful one: the new president of federal and chief operating officer of BigBear.ai can quickly rattle off the big numbers behind some of the lines of business he ran at Leidos ($1.5 billion) and at IBM ($2.5 billion.). BigBear.ai is not at the same scale at $150 million in annual revenue today, but Gordy says the potential is huge and was one factor in his decision to join the company on Nov. 1 2021.
The list is bigger - but with only this 2 leaders of the company $BBAI have knowledge and access to some of the biggest move in the industry - either from the Federal Gov, military or from the corporate world.
Third catalyst for BBAI: The right partners and the list os growing
Just 3 weeks ago BBAI announced the partnership with the king of inteligence data - Palantir.
Either you like or not Pether Thiel, you have to admit he is a pretty smart and influent guy arround tech world - especially when is connected with the intelligence community.
'As part of the integrated product offering, Palantir’s Foundry platform will be integrated with BigBear.ai’s Observe, Orient and Dominate products, creating powerful machine learning extensions for the Palantir ecosystem that will provide global data collection, generate actionable insights and deliver anticipatory intelligence at enterprise scale to address high-growth federal and commercial verticals including space, retail, logistics and energy.'
In short - a lot , really a lot more customers for $BBAI - this exactly the part that I like from their partnership : BBAI capabilities are added as an extra to the Palantir Foundry - meaning 2 things: Palantir recognizing the value and uniqueness of BBAI platform and BBAI getting a lot more customers from Palantir.
Beside that you can see a list of partners on bigbear.ai website even though, due to the nature of intelligence and military contracts (secresy) they don;'t provide much details.
Sufice to say that among those partners you can count: Amazon, Microsoft Azure, Knime, Apian, etc.
So, with less attention this day, $BBAI is a short squeze candidate with high growth, strong moat and riding one of the most influential tech revolution of the century.
Buckle up and let's ride it to the sky!
submitted byMillennialBetstoMillennialBets [link][comments]

2021.12.14 02:55 MillennialBets$IMPX - LiveWire..... A Mediocre Product From a Dying Brand, From a Motorcyclist's Perspective

Date: 2021-12-13 14:27:12, Author:u/FUPeiMe, (Karma: 18377, Created:Apr-2020)
SubReddit:spacs, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
PLBY 31.22 GS 384.64 HD 405.24 IMPX 10.2 IWM 216.04 QQQ 391.93 SPY 466.57
I thought I'd offer some thoughts on the newly announced merger between IMPX/Livewire as a motorcycle enthusiast with a few bikes in the garage right now.
TLDR: I see nothing to be excited about, and to double down, I think this is Harley's way of separating from a failing product line. Investors planning on holding this for more than whatever hype gets generated over the next month or two will be catching a falling knife... to their eye.
Here is the 5-year chart for Harley Davidson's stock, ticker symbol HOG:
​
As of 12/13/2021
Do we see a trend here?? Compare that to SPY, IWM,QQQ, etc over the past 5 years and the trend becomes more obvious.
I will let you all go and do the research because you shouldn't trust what an internet stranger tells you anyway, but long story short their products are not evolving, their clients are aging, and their portion of the motorcycle segment continues to weaken as Japanese and European competitors gain market share. Their balance sheet is ugly, too. When I'm out riding, and I tend to ride around rural areas often, I of course see Harley's still but I see many Honda's, Yamaha's, BMW's, KTM's, etc now too. The sales figures from those competitors will also show an uptick in market share and what I'm giving you here is more anecdotal, admittedly, but I am keeping this simple.
Harley Davidson has made the same bikes for decades... cruiser and bagger style bikes with occasional limited editions and series of those same bikes (ie a different paint scheme on the same bike). However, the motorcycles market has gone through various trends during that time, currently being very 'cafe racer' and 'naked' focused with a side of 'sports touring' as well. You can Google any of those terms if you'd like. Just know that the types of bikes that Harley makes are all within one segment of the motorcycle industry and motorcycle buyers are now all over the board with the types of bikes they want to buy/own.
HD definitely has a loyal client base, no question about it, but their clients are unfortunate getting:

1. Older (Fact)
2. Poorer (Opinion)
3. Don't love the direction the brand is going in (Will cover that in the next section)

Full disclosure... I do not own a Harley, I never have owned a Harley, and I probably won't own a Harley ever. BUT, they recently released a new model that is getting TONS of buzz everywhere and if I had to own a Harley this would be the one (and it's not the Livewire, which I'll explain below). It is called the Sportster S and it came out for model year 2021 and it is powered by their Revolution Max 1250 engone platform. But having said that, the Sportster S is heavier and worse performing than my BMW S1000R which I recently bought so I can't see buying a Sportster S unless they improved it.
The Revolution Max 1250 engine, which I believe originally debuted on their Pan America touring model (which is inferior to BMW's best-selling GS 1250 series of bikes), is the second time in recent history that Harley has gone against its instincts and produced a liquid-cooled engine that doesn't suck and fall short of every peer-compared performance metric across the industry*
The Vrod was the first example in modern history and they cancelled that model after their 'purists' didn't buy enough of them because they felt it was too high tech, which it was for a Harley but not for the rest of the industry*
The Revolution Max 1250 platform, in a nutshell, is a high performance (for Harley) engine which at least puts it closer to equal (but still a little short) when compared to its peers on performance figures. But more importantly, it gives them an engine platform that a younger generation of rider with some extra income may be excited about. The important thing to recognize here, however, is that younger people don't want to be associated with Harley Davidson because it's considered to be for older riders (I'm being polite by not pointing out other characteristics HD owners are known for) and that is surely why they're wanting Livewire to stand alone.
But to conclude this point, the Livewire is absolutely NOT an innovation from Harley worth mentioning because compared it ITS peers it is literally the bottom of every list regardless of comparison point, which I will now cover.
To get the easy stuff out of the way, the Livewire was announced a several years ago to much fanfare because E-Motorcycles were new and exciting. At the time there were maybe one or two other options but those were also in the RD&D phase and had little to no sales.
Well boy what a difference a few years makes! Zero Motorcycles out of California sells a ton of bikes (relative to other E-Motos) and a couple other companies sell decently too. This is for a few reasons, not the least surprising to find at the top of the list is:

1. Price. Livewire's are WAY more expensive than the competition.
2. Performance. Livewire's are heavier than the alternatives.
3. Technology. Livewire's have no apparent advantage in the actual tech of their bikes.

​
Price:
I don't know the MSRP's of every single E-bike model but if you're bored you can look it up. From recollection the Livewire is close to double the price of the Zero motorcycle I'd go buy today if I wanted an E-moto though. Furthermore, and again this is just anecdotal, the Livewire that my local Harley has for sale is sitting in the showroom and has been for months. Conversely, the Zero model that I'd love to get a test ride on has not been available yet in my local showroom because the sell them very quickly and I'm not a big enough fanboy to be there the day they put it out.
Performance:
As per Harley's usual formula of making shitty bikes, THEY ARE ALL OVERWEIGHT compared to competitors! The Livewire is not different, and on a motorcycle an extra 50-100 pounds makes a huge difference in the handling characteristics of a motorcycle. The range argument doesn't matter much for any E-moto on the market right now because most guys like me will ride 30-50 miles on a nice day and then do something else (for bikes with the limited seating comfort like a Livewire). Maybe 75-85 miles on a long day of riding but that would be rare (again, on bikes that are designed for form over function in the comfort department).
If the Livewire is heavier than its peers but offers no acceleration or range advantage, which it doesn't, then it becomes more clear why the riding community has largely given a resounding 'Meh?' to the Livewire.
Technology:
I don't expect much from a motorcycle in the way of technology but I do have a few requirements on all bikes I buy now... Heated grips, cruise control, navigation on the dashboard, multi-axis traction control and ABS, and clutchless shifting. Here is the problem, then, for the Livewire: ALL premium bikes have these features now because they're ALL ride-by-wire throttle which means that the riding experience is comparable between a Livewire and a premium ICE motorcycle and that's without even mentioning the noise and soul of an ICE bike which I'm leaving out of this write-up because it is just too simple and obvious to anybody who rides.
Fuck if I know?!!? I believe Harley is splitting off Livewire from the core Harley Davidson because it does not garner excitement from their core customers and it's not doing much for the newer generation of riders with disposable income either. I would even argue that it is upsetting some of the few remaining core HD enthusiasts that don't vibe with the new direction the company is going with the REAL innovation, the Revolution Max 1250, but at least HD knows that will get people like me excited unlike the Livewire. And this cannot be said enough... Livewires are like $25K out the door! For a sub-par motorcycle!! Do you know how many other, BETTER bikes I would buy right now if you gave me another $30k and told me I had to buy a cool bike with it?? I already have a BMW I love but Ducati makes a few bikes I'd rather have and I'd love to have one again, MV Agusta makes some sexy options that would be the prettiest bike outside of the coffee shop for my usual rides, and if I had to go electric I'd head straight to Zero Motorcycles because they have a few different models I like and I could buy a couple of them for the price of one mediocre Livewire.
Think on this for a moment... Livewire's have dropped by $10K in MSRP between their launch and their new 're-launch' and the bike is identical! You think maybe the market has given HD some real-time feedback on their bike??
If I was HD's newer CEO I sure would like to put a little distance between the Livewire, their innovation gone wrong, and the Revolution Max 1250 powered models that are going to be coming out over the next few years. And fast! And that is what I see happening here.
Allow me to make an analogy: Volvo is a great brand and Polestar seems pretty promising, but the two brands are not alike and therefore it makes sense to split them. Harley and Livewire are much the same. But in this case the future of Harleywhich was going to be the Livewireis now going to be the Revolution Max 1250 and so Livewire needs to go away fast so they can keep cramming that new 1250 ICE into as many of their outdated bike models as possible before they officially become a lifestyle clothing brand only.
Another analogy: Playboy used to make porn. Then they stopped making porn and became a lifestyle brand. Now they want to be OnlyFans and NFT's and probably some other pivots because their porn is no longer desired and their brand is too well known globally to simply throw in the towel. Harley Davidson is the same. And both are already circling the drain because their core products are outdated and their core customers are aging out.
I would personally only play this for the short-term. Look at the 5-year chart again from the top of this post and simply substitute 'Livewire' for 'Harley Davidson' and substitute '5 Year' for '1 Year'.
If I could buy stock in the Revolution Max 1250 I wouldn't still because it is inferior and too late when compared to other options, but at least Harley is trying and will succeed in the short term with that platform. Livewire, however, failed when it launched two years ago and has not changed since so why anybody thinks it will be different now is beyond my ability of comprehension.
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.' -Einstein
Disclosure and Disclaimer: Of course I don't have any investment in IMPX at this time, and if I did I would have sold it on today's pop.
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2021.12.13 23:44 MillennialBetsPuts on $LWLG: hedge fund managed share selling scam on a do-nothing company

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2021.12.09 20:53 MillennialBets$SLDP - Solid Power - Powering next gen EVs and your portfolio

Date: 2021-12-09 11:15:19, Author:u/GoInToTheBreak, (Karma: 3349, Created:Mar-2021)
SubReddit:WallStreetBets, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
CELH 68.905 F 19.83 MS 101.66 QS 25.03 TSLA 1032.55 DKNG 32.23 LCID 39.06 SLDP N/A
Why have I not heard of this ticker before? This was previously a SPAC that merged today and so is now a “real stock”.
Don’t most SPACs suck? Yes, most deSPACs suck but the ones that don’t like DKNG, QS, LCID have huge upside.
Why is this different? There are only two public companies working on the next generation of solid state batteries to power future EVs and other tech; Quantumscape ($QS) and Solid Power. Solid Power went public at a very attractive price putting it at about 1/5th the valuation of Quantumscape.
What exactly are Solid Power’s selling points?
Solid Power is making a “New Breed of Battery”, namely solid state batteries, primarily for Electric Vehicles (“EVs”). They have been in R&D mode for the last 8 years, are now ramping towards production, and will be the first to commercial production using existing lithium battery manufacturing facilities.
The advantages of moving to solid state batteries are many but some main ones include:

• Double the range of current batteries
• More than double the life of current batteries
• Non-volatile (they don’t catch on fire during accidents like current batteries)
• Cheaper to manufacture at scale
• Their batteries do not use Cobalt which is currently being cornered by aggressive Chinese acquisitions

What is even more exciting are their partners and investors
​
https://preview.redd.it/fdz3gybqkj481.jpg?width=1204&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ac8e84845d0fbba11b2185abd885cf539fad151e
​
Ford has committed to a joint venture with Solid Power and plans to eventually incorporate their batteries into its EVs. Ford is projecting that it will be producing 600,000 EVs by 2023 (Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-plans-to-increase-ev-production-to-600000-vehicles-by-2023/ar-AAQSlV5) making Ford the second largest EV producer after Tesla.
BMW may also soon be a completely electric vehicle company with Germany planning to phase out all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030 (Source: https://www.lifegate.com/germany-electric-cars)
Does the government have some involvement here?
Glad you asked. It's not only the private sector that loves Solid Power. Solid Power was spun out of a DARPA project and the government really wants this tech ASAP to counter Chinese control of the battery market. As such the U.S government has given them multiple grants and contracts going back to 2013 to fund their R&D in the hopes of incorporating solid state batteries into future defense and space systems (Source: https://govtribe.com/vendors/solid-power-inc-dot-6lyk5#related-federal-contract-awards-table). The new infrastructure bill also includes $6 billion allocated towards battery infrastructure which is a potential pot of money Solid Power can access to turbo boost their R&D.
Why is Everyone Excited About Batteries?
Morgan Stanley has said that “Batteries Are the New Oil” and with our rapidly approaching electric future I can’t help but agree. As more and more of our infrastructure runs off batteries the companies that control this resource will be the new providers of energy in the future replacing the Exxons and BPs of today. The EV market has a TAM of $300B at 50% penetration and $600B at 100% EV penetration as projected to take place in 2035. The most exciting of these companies and the one with the most advanced technology, in my opinion, is Solid Power and we have a real gift being handed to us here being able to get into this thing early and on the ground floor of the future here. Solid Power is already lined up to provide the batteries for future EVs from Ford and BMW as well as the major Korean brands via it’s joint venture with SK (more on that later).
How does Solid Power compare to the competition
The company that most people are aware of in this space since it went public first is of course Quantumscape ($QS). There are two ways to compare Quantumscape and Solid Power, first by their respective technologies and second by how they are currently trading in the market and by both these measures Solid Power is a clear winner.

• Quantumscape only tested their batteries to 800 cycles, while Solid Power tested theirs to 1000, and at 45 degrees Celsius as opposed to Quantumscape’s 25 degrees Celsius while maintaining >80% capacity retention.
• Solid Power has recorded 650 cycles with a 2C-rate fast charge occurring during every fifth cycle in near room-temperature conditions, whereas most of Quantumscape’s published numbers were only performed at <=1C rates, suggesting that Solid Power batteries are more efficient at quick-charging, as much as twice as efficient. Quick charging is a huge requirement for battery technology.
• Quantumscape is struggling with at-scale production and rollout strategies, whereas Solid Power is going to market with those problems solved and partners in place to hit the ground running. Solid Power will have its batteries in Ford EVs in 2022 for initial testing.

The nice thing about Quantumscape going public first is it gives us a look at how receptive the market is to a solid state battery play.
​
https://preview.redd.it/jzy56gapkj481.jpg?width=1240&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d08d5d01f7c612f37f2147a2e0e14f42714d9b76
I made this chart prior to the merger and am too lazy to update it but as you can see we are following it nicely.
As we can see from the $QS chart it also meandered along around $12 going into merger before rocketing to a high of $114.77 and then eventually settling in the $20 - $40 range.
Solid Power is going public at a pro-forma enterprise value of $1.2B at $10 per share. That means that $QS post merger valuation is trading at a 10x premium to $SLDP pre-merger and some simple math would then tell us that for $SLDP to trade at market cap parity to $QS the stock would need to rise to $100 per share, a 10x return from its merger price.
Another major competitor to Solid Power is SK Innovation, the battery manufacturing arm of Korean conglomerate SK and the world’s 4th largest battery manufacturer. SK Innovations, however, signed a joint development agreement with Solid Power in October whereby Solid Power will help SK Innovation develop solid state batteries for the Asian market. SK will invest $30 million into Solid Power as well as paying them a licensing fee on all their batteries and they expect this joint venture to cut their solid state battery launch window by 2 years.
SK saw the writing on the wall, that Solid Power is way ahead of the pack and if they want to stay competitive they needed to get access to their R&D.
SK is investing $2.6B in a battery factory in Georgia to build NCM batteries for the initial run of Ford F-150 pickup trucks but you can bet this factory will be designed so that it can easily swap to manufacturing Solid Power’s solid state batteries as soon as they are ready to go to market. Solid Power gets a fat royalty on every battery sold while SK fronts all the capital. I think this is an excellent business strategy by Solid Power versus Qunatumscape trying to do everything themselves. (Source: https://insideevs.com/news/508616/ford-skinnovation-battery-jv-blueovalsk/)
The final major competitors in this space are LG Energy Solutions and Samsung SDI Co., but without access to Solid State’s technology they are not expected to have commercial solid state batteries available on the market until 2027-2030.
What is the Bear Case?
I am obviously bullish on this company but no investment is without risks. While Solid Power has so far met all its milestones they are still a year out from initial production and 2 years from large scale commercial deliveries. As with any pre-revenue play these timelines could slip and everything could get pushed farther out leaving you to hold this for longer than you may have hoped for. They may also have issues like many manufacturers do (*cough Tesla*) ramping up production as fast as they hope.
Position and Disclaimers:
I have an economic interest in the success of Solid Power. I am currently long 12,000 commons and 20,000 warrants.
TL;DR: Solid Power has amazing potential with solid partners and tech. PT $30 low case, $81 midcase, $120 high case
References:
Solid Power Investor Presentation: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1844862/000119312521190525/d124653dex993.htm
Bloomberg Article 10/28/21 SK Targets New EV Battery Technology Two Years Ahead of Rivals:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-28/sk-innovation-targets-the-year-2025-for-solid-state-batteries
Press Release 10/27/21 Solid Power Partners with SK Innovation to Jointly Produce All-Solid-State Batteries:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/10/28/2322267/0/en/Solid-Power-Partners-with-SK-Innovation-to-Jointly-Produce-All-Solid-State-Batteries.html
Solid Power Federal Contract Awards:
https://govtribe.com/vendors/solid-power-inc-dot-6lyk5#related-federal-contract-awards-table

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Ford EV projections: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-plans-to-increase-ev-production-to-600000-vehicles-by-2023/ar-AAQSlV5
Germany all electric by 2030:
https://www.lifegate.com/germany-electric-cars
SK-Ford battery MOU:
https://insideevs.com/news/508616/ford-skinnovation-battery-jv-blueovalsk/
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2021.12.09 19:47 MillennialBetsIONQ

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2021.12.09 19:46 MillennialBetsWhy I am putting 80% of my portfolio in FSR with stock, calls, and LEAP and think it will hit $167 a share by YE 2023, $559/share by YE 2024, and $900/share by YE 2025

Date: 2021-12-08 17:18:13, Author:u/Monacapital, (Karma: 87, Created:Dec-2021)
SubReddit:WallStreetBets, DD Click Here
SomeTickers mentioned in this post:
FSR 18.24 MS 100.885 TSLA 1033.34 NIO 34.78 UFO 27.67 CATL N/A LEAP 10.28
Summary

• I got a chance an up close and personal view of the Fisker Ocean at the recent LA auto show. It will be an absolute game changer in the industry and will drive sales much higher than street expectations
• My updated model suggests Fisker could we worth $167/share by YE 2023, $559/share by YE 2024 and over $900/share by YE 2025
• Board members had been buying stock in the last few weeks in meaningful amounts
• Soros just bought a large stake in Fisker
• On 11/25/21, the CEO tweeted that after the recent LA auto show, “We r sold out until mid-2023. After reviewing with Magna, I think we can exceed 7,500 production volume (previous 5,000) per month to second ½ of 2023, to for fill increasing demand!”. This implies 25% more production capacity for the full year of 75,000 units vs previous guidance of 60,000.

There have been many great articles on Seeking Alpha about the history of Fisker, what makes Fisker unique (using MAGNA and FOXCONN as contract manufacturers much like NIO has done), and some of the troubled history of the failed Fisker Karma. I will not focus on those details here. Suffice to say that Fisker was one of the early pioneers in the EV race and launched his iconic Fisker Karma BEFORE the Tesla Model S. Yes, he ran into some issues with his battery supplier and yes, his previous company did go belly-up. But America is all about comebacks and I believe Henrik will be coming back stronger than ever. I like the fact that he has failed in the past, because that will just make him hungrier to prove himself and learn from his mistakes.
Specifications from the LA auto show indicated features are class leading at their price point
You will not find any EV with this range, feature set and dynamic style in this price class (please check www.fiskerinc.com for more details and to reserve one with a $250 deposit). It’s a class leading SUV that starts at $37,499 ($29,999 with current federal subsidies - likely to increase).
“Delivery” of cars is really only 4 months away
Most people think the company is 1 year or more behind Rivian or Lucid, but that is simply not the case. In the recent earnings call on Nov 3rd, 2021, Henrik Fisker said that “well over eight months before we launch the vehicle” that Fisker will be “building two vehicles a day”. With SOP (Start of Production) slated to be on November 17th, 2022, this implies that they will be building 2 cars/day starting around March 2022. Assuming approximately 261 days until SOP, that means 522 cars that will be built before the official SOP.
What will Fisker do with these 522 cars? It’s just way too many for crash-testing and homologation. As a point of reference, Lucid said it plans to deliver only 520 cars by the end of 2021 and only 20,000 Lucid Air sedans in 2022. On December 1st 2021, Henrik stated after the auto show “we are well over 20,000 [reservations] and the numbers go up every few minutes.” Difference in their respective market cap? How about $6 BN in market cap for Fisker and over $80 BN in market cap for Lucid - 10x as much! Yes, Lucid is delivering 20,000 cars in 2022 vs Fisker delivering (in my model) 75,000 cars in 2023, but is that valuation differential warranted?
Also, Lucid reservations holders have recently been alerted to expect delays and it looks increasingly unlikely that the 520 delivery number for 2021 will actually materialize. Lucid also announced yesterday that it is being investigated by the SEC for its SPAC deal with Churchill Capital. Fisker announced on the same day that 'Our merger with Spartan Energy Corp, completed in October 2020, was reviewed by the SEC and other relevant regulatory authorities, To date, we have not received any requests for additional information from the SEC relating to the merger transaction and, to our knowledge, we are not under any investigation by the SEC regarding our SPAC merger”.
I know where I would rather put my money. What happens if Fisker delivers some of these pre-production cars to employees or “friendlies” much like Rivian has done? We have to realize that the start of production means different things to different people. Simply because Rivian owns their own plant, their definition of start of production is very different than FSR’s which relies on contract manufacturers. Before you start to complain about Fisker’s lack of owning their own plant, just look at NIO’s $60 BN market cap and it’s run from $2 to $33 to realize that outsourced production can be very successful.
Anyway, let’s get back to Lucid’s recent history to get a sense of what a stock price reaction might look like for FSR when we start seeing some cars on the road. On Oct 27th 2021, Lucid issued a press release stating that customer deliveries of its Lucid Air Dream Edition (priced at $169,000) would start on Oct 30th, 2021. Lucid surged as much as 47% the next and the stock eventually went from $27.69 to $45.92 in 7 trading days! A staggering 65% return in 7 days.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/lucid-shares-skyrocket-after-confirming-deliveries-of-169000-air-sedan.html
What would happen with Fisker’s stock if it could start “delivering” cars in March 2022, which is less than 4 months away? A similar move in FSR would yield a $18.34 to $30.26 move. What happens when Fisker allows press and auto magazines to start test driving the car and they get blown away with 550bp, 0-60 MPH in less than 3.6 seconds, smart traction (allows the right amount of torque to the correct wheels) and “race-car” like handling?
Fisker also features an innovative flexible leasing model with no long-term contracts. This can generate “more than 250% margin on these vehicles long-term” as Henrik mentioned on the Q3 2021 conference call. FSR can lease their cars over and over again over a 12-year life span and charge each new customer for OTA (over the air) updates for different software enhancements.
Putting it all together in a model
So, now that we know Fisker could pop once their cars start rolling off the pre-production line around March 2022, what is the company really worth over the long-term? Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas resumed coverage of Fisker with a $40 PT and a bull case PT of $90 on August 10, 2021. News has gotten dramatically better since then, and Jonas has yet to appropriately update his model.
We not only had the LA auto show, the news that Fisker was using battery packs from CATL (largest battery supplier in the world) with class leading LFP chemistry, but also critical news that Foxconn signed a definitive agreement to purchase the 6.2 MM square foot Lordstown facility in order to produce the Fisker PEAR. This factory gives Fisker the ability to take advantage of any incremental EV federal credits for producing in the US. Henrik even said in an interview that this means that PEAR production could be moved up earlier. He has also dropped hints that Magna is ahead of schedule for the Ocean. Please show me ONE EV company that has announced being early to market.
On the February 21th, 2021 conference call an analyst asked “in the announcement from yesterday, you talked about the Foxconn relationship alone to be 250,000?” and Henrik answered “could see surpassing our original goal of 250,000 by 2025.” Then, on the Q2 call August 6th 2021, Henrik stated that when JUST speaking about the Ocean “I think we will easily be able to sell more than 250,000 vehicles of that a year and just wait to see it. It's just amazing. In terms of the last two vehicles for its total plan of, four coming together between before 2025, we actually already have designed the third vehicle and the fourth vehicle will be already in negotiations for something pretty unique about that vehicle as well. So the four vehicles actually are on plan.”
Taking all this new information, Henrik’s recent tweets, and some factoids from the recent conference calls and running it through a model yields some pretty impressive stock prices. The peer group trades as forward sales multiples of between 14x (Tesla) to 35x (Lucid), so let us use a starting multiple of 14x for Fisker and we get the following resulting stock prices:
Total Global EV Market (in MM) 8,500,000 11,000,000 14,000,000
Growth Rate 29% 27%
Ocean Units 60,000 175,000 250,000 Growth Rate 192% 43%
Pear Units 5,000 75,000 250,000
Growth Rate 1400% 233%

Militarycupid

UFO Units 10,000 50,000 90,000
Growth Rate 400% 80%
TBD 4th car 15,000 60,000
Growth Rate 300%
Total Units 75,000 315,000 650,000
Implied Growth Rate 320% 106%
% of Total Global EV sales 0.88% 2.86% 4.64%
ASP (Blended) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000
Total Revenues (in $MM) $3,750 $14,175 $26,000
Share Outstanding (In MM) 314 330 346
P/S Multiple . 14 13 12
Implied Stock Price $167 $559 $901
Conclusion

• With a 28% short interest ratio, things could get really exciting when we start seeing some Fisker cars in the hands of press in early 2022
• TSLA’s stock was up 743.44% in 2020 and its not that much of a stretch to see Fisker making a similar move in 2022 when we get closer to production
• Fisker is trading at less that 1/10 the valuation of Lucid and yet will produce more cars than Lucid by 2025

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2021.12.09 18:30 ZestyBellsHow to Optimize for Voice Search: 7 SEO Strategies for voice search

Your ultimate guide on voice search and SEO
“Hey, Siri, What is voice search optimization and how can I use it to drive traffic and increase revenue?” If you’ve mastered text-based search engine optimization and you’re interested in driving even more traffic to your site through voice searches, keep reading. The team at RevGlue is doing a deep dive into voice search engine optimization. We’ll talk about who’s using it and the when’s and why’s that will help you develop your content strategy based on user intent. Then, we’ll talk about seven key strategies you need to implement today if you want to rank on voice-enabled searches. Voice searches are on the rise, are you ready to compete for the top spots? Siri, Google, and Alexa are great, but if you’re looking for in-depth answers to your top questions about how to optimize for voice searches, RevGlue has all the answers you need to succeed.

What is voice search optimization?

Before diving into the how-to’s of voice search optimization, let’s first define voice search. Voice search is a voice command on any internet-enabled device that allows a user to search the internet by utilizing a virtual assistant rather than typing. If you’ve ever called out “Hey, Siri,” “OK, Google,” or “Alexa,” you’ve used voice search. The responses generated by your virtual assistant are curated in a similar way to text-based search engine optimization, returning the articles and answers most relevant to your question.
This process of providing curated, just-for-you answers was made possible by Google’s 2013 Hummingbird update. Before Hummingbird, Google’s results were solely based on the input query. Today, Google conducts a semantic search, that is, a search with meaning. The update allowed Google to use context and intent to deliver relevant, local answers tailored specifically to the individual user. This update paved the way for voice search to become the method used by 51% of shoppers to conduct product research on their shopping journey. Voice search optimization is the process used to ensure that your article ranks above all others when users conduct a voice search.
If you’re in the business of creating content designed to drive traffic and make money, you’re probably wondering how you can harness the power of voice search to reach a new user base. We’re delving into the user behaviors, best practices, and research methods that will help you rank number one on voice search rankings, increasing website traffic and income generated. This guide gives you actionable strategies on how to implement voice search on the website.

Who uses voice search, why, and when?

An estimated 122.7 million Americans are on track to use virtual assistants in 2021. That’s nearly 40% of the population, searching by voice. In order to understand how to maximize your potential on voice search, we need to understand who’s searching, why, and when they’re using this feature.

Who uses voice search?

A 2018 study by Social Media Today revealed that men are more likely than women to use voice search technology. The breakdown by gender and device shows male vs. female split: 66% vs. 55% (smartphone), 53% vs. 30% (desktop/laptop), 49% vs. 31% (tablet), and 46% vs. 26% (smart speaker). Age plays a big role in the use of voice search technology. In 2018, 35.8% of Millennials, 16.7% of GenXers, and 9.9% of Baby Boomers used voice search. Don’t count the Baby Boomers out, though. A poll revealed that 33% of consumers 55+ would consider using voice searches to look for information on a local business. Demographic information is helpful when predicting which content is most likely to benefit from voice search optimization.

Why is voice search used?

The possibilities of searching through voice are endless, but we’ve noticed some trends that will be helpful when you’re optimizing your web content. BrightLocal reports that while 58% of consumers used voice search to find information on a local business in the last 12 months, 82% of those polled said they’d consider using voice search to find information on local businesses in the future.

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When asked why they use voice search, users report that it’s easier and faster than searching on a website or app or they use it when they’re unable to interact with their device because they’re driving or cooking. Voice searches are a convenient way to multitask, increasing productivity in a fast-moving world.
When is voice search used?
Higher Visibility conducted a survey in 2018 to find out when people were most likely to use the voice search feature on their internet-enabled device. They found that 35% of users employ voice search while driving and 21% use it while doing another activity, like exercising, cooking, or even using the bathroom! At times when it’s unsafe or unsanitary to touch a phone, voice searches keep users connected at all times.

How to optimize your website for voice search

Now that we’ve covered who uses voice search, when they use it, and why, we’ll talk about seven ways that you can optimize your content for voice searches.
Create content using conversational, long-tail keywords
If you’ve gotten used to incorporating unnatural, robotic-sounding keywords in order to rank on Google, you’re going to love optimizing for voice search. Virtual assistants rely on Natural Language Processing (NLP) to analyze your speech patterns and tailor its response for maximum relevance over time. Since voice searches can be over 10 words, users often utilize natural language instead of the stilted queries we’ve come to use when searching on a computer. For example, if your previous keyword is “voice search strategy SEO,” a voice search keyword may be “how do I optimize my site for voice search?”
We use short phrases when we type to save physical effort, but we think of our queries to virtual assistants as a conversation-- leading to natural, long-tail keywords and key phrases in question form. A study by BrightLocal revealed that “how,” “what,” and “best” are the top three keywords when it comes to voice searches. If that statistic doesn’t surprise you, this one might: almost 20% of voice searches are triggered by just 25 words! Add the 25 trigger keywords BrightLocal recommends (in the right order) into your articles and watch the page views roll in!
How can you use conversational, long-tail keywords to get found on voice searches?
Adding FAQs and creating headings in question form can boost your ability to get found by voice search. Remember that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is getting smarter and more human-like every day. Write for the humans who are conducting the search and trust that the virtual assistants will share your well-written content when it’s relevant.
The best methods for conducting voice keyword research

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When you want to get found online, keyword research is key. If you’ve been working on your SEO, you’re likely familiar with tools like KeySearch, Moz Keyword Explorer, Google AdWords, and SEMrush. While those tried-and-true methods have likely helped you climb the ranks of Google’s search engine results pages (SERPs), will these methods help you with voice keyword research? The short answer: it’s a great place to start!
What can you do right now to increase your impact with voice keyword research?
We recommend exporting your current search queries from Google Ads or Google Analytics and checking whether you’re currently receiving traffic from virtual assistants. Look for queries that begin “Hey, Alexa,” “OK, Google,” or “Hey, Siri.” Don’t see any of those? No problem! That’s what we’re here to change. Optimize your current keywords by adding question modifiers like “who,” “what,” “where” and ensuring that your website contains casual vernacular.
Understand user intent with voice search
Now that we’ve talked about the way to incorporate keywords phrased as questions in your articles to drive traffic, let’s talk about understanding user intent by analyzing the keywords users employ to find you. Are users finding you with questions beginning in “how” and “what?” That user is in the research phase of the shopping process. Are users finding you with questions that start with “where?” That user is in purchase mode; they are ready to buy. Is your site optimized to take them through the purchase process?
How can I drive sales depending on user intent?
If your users are finding you during their research, you need to be sure your content is thorough and memorable. Get your sales to funnel set up and capture email addresses so you can stay on their radar when they move from the research phase to purchasing intent. If users are finding you during the purchase phase, make sure your site is ready to sell! Check broken links regularly and update your articles when new products are released to increase conversions.
Near me: voice search’s magic words
It should come as no surprise that most voice searches are local since many searches are conducted while users are on the move. In fact, an overwhelming majority of users (88%) of voice searches are “near me” searches. Google reported that “‘near me’ mobile searches that contain a variant of ‘can I buy’ or ‘to buy’ have grown over 500% over the last two years.” If you’re a local business, it is incredibly important to optimize your website to show up in near me searches. “Near me” searches are on the rise. Are you capitalizing on this trend?
What can I do right now to benefit from “near me” searches? Users are searching for local businesses with a buying intent. Optimize your site for “near me” searches by keeping your address, opening hours, and services up-to-date. Missing key information means you are missing out on sales.
Featured snippets: the voice search holy grail
The coveted snippet, also known as position 0, is the holy grail of voice and browser-based searches. To earn a snippet means that Google has deemed your content relevant, mobile-friendly, and informative. Competition for featured snippets is fierce, but the results are worth the work. Posts in Position 0 achieve 8% of all clicks for a query on Google.
How can I get a featured snippet for voice searches?
In order to achieve a featured snippet for voice, you’ll employ many of the same tactics used to capture a featured snippet on a browser. First, create an FAQ section on your post with relevant questions. Remember, voice searches are usually question-based, so this will help with snippets and searches. Make each question a heading on your page. Answer your question concisely-- the average snippet is 29 words long, so keep it short and informative. Once you’ve answered your FAQs, keep the rest of the content on-topic and include your keywords! Page speed matters
You’ve heard it before and you’ll hear it again. Page speed is important when attracting website visitors and keeping them there. It’s even more important when you’re attracting voice searchers. A study of 10,000 Google Home search results shows that the average voice search result page loads in 4.6 seconds-- that’s 52% faster than the average page. If your site speed is slow, your content may not show up in a virtual assistant’s recommendations-- even if your article is the best answer to a user’s question. Regularly analyze and make changes to optimize your page speed and increase your rankings.
How can I make sure my site speed doesn’t negatively impact voice searches?
Check your website’s page speed using Google’s PageSpeed Insights. This tool is essential for determining your site’s speed and offering practical advice on how to decrease the load time.
Don’t give up on traditional SEO
In an effort to optimize for voice search, don’t neglect traditional SEO. When comparing voice and browser searches, 75% of the voice search results rank in the top three positions on Google. Continue to optimize every post for traditional and voice keywords to compete on both fronts. Creating the most in-depth and relevant content on any given topic ensures you’ll top the rankings, no matter where the user is searching.
What can I do to increase my SEO?
The RevGlue website is full of tips for optimizing your SEO. Not sure where to start? Check out our top 20 SEO tools for affiliates and SEO for affiliate marketers.
Voice searches are here to stay, and data suggests they’ll only increase over time. Use the seven strategies we talked about today to drive traffic and increase income through voice SEO.
Bookmark this page and use this checklist as a reminder of the 7 steps for voice search optimization when you go back to update existing posts and write new ones:
1. Incorporate conversational keywords using question-based phrases 2. Conduct voice-enabled keyword research 3. Analyse user intent 4. Use “near me” vocabulary and keep your location and hours up to date 5. Include a Q&A section with concise and relevant answers for featured snippets 6. Check your site speed and make updates as necessary 7. Focus on traditional SEO
RevGlue is committed to helping bloggers, website owners, and mobile app owners monetize their start-ups. Once you’ve mastered voice search engine optimization, check out our blog for more tips and tricks to grow your audience and your income.
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